Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T16:30:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

A1
0xa127…4e1f
weather · 450 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
+$7 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$1 · open +$7
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$89
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses93 / 341
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions16
Markets (closed)434 / 450
History coverage114d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day11.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%
Chart Positions 16 History 434 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$58
14 days+$24
30 days+$25
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 12? No 89¢ 100¢ $34 $38 +$4 (+12%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 12? Yes 30¢ 100¢ $9 $30 +$21 (+233%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 13? Yes 35¢ 36¢ $11 $12 +$0 (+2%)
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 56¢ 56¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 13? Yes 60¢ 57¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-5%)
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31? Yes 29¢ 20¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-29%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? Yes 19¢ 6¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-66%)
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30? Yes 18¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-42%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? Yes 30¢ 11¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-63%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? No 2¢ 1¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-73%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? Yes 12¢ 1¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-90%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? Yes 10¢ 2¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-77%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? Yes 17¢ 3¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-80%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 12? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 13? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-95%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 12? Yes 28¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 5? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 9? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 9? Jun 12 $4 +$15 +351%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 9? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 6? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 8? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 8? Jun 12 $3 −$2 -62%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 8? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 11? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 9? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 9? Jun 12 $6 +$7 +110%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 11? Jun 12 $15 −$1 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 8? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 11? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 11? Jun 12 $5 +$2 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 9? Jun 10 $4 +$1 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 9? Jun 10 $6 +$34 +552%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 8? Jun 09 $1 +$1 +121%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 8? Jun 09 $4 +$22 +611%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 8? Jun 09 $9 +$6 +66%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C or higher on June 4? Jun 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 08 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 4? Jun 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 1? Jun 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 1? Jun 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 04 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 04 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 3? Jun 04 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C or higher on June 3? Jun 04 $5 +$8 +162%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 1? Jun 02 $1 +$1 +143%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 1? Jun 02 $1 +$7 +614%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -62%
Will Trump say "Tariff" during events with Xi Jinping? Jun 01 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on May 8? Jun 01 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Trump say "TikTok" during events with Xi Jinping? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 8? Jun 01 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 11? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on May 18? Jun 01 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 11? Jun 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? Jun 01 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on May 13? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on May 28? Jun 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 8? Jun 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on May 18? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 8? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on May 25? Jun 01 $3 −$3 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? May 18 $2 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 11? May 13 $2 +$2 +78%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 85% +$84
crypto 7% −$33
finance 2% −$12
sports 2% −$18
other 1% −$11
politics 1% −$3
world 1% +$4
economics 0% −$1
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 13? BUY Yes 60¢ $3 38m
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 13? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 13? BUY Yes 31¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 13? BUY Yes 31¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 13? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 13? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 13? BUY Yes 34¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 13? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 13? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 13? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 13? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 13? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 13? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 13? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 3h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 13? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 3h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 13? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 3h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 13? BUY Yes 39¢ $4 3h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 13? BUY Yes 41¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 13? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 12? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 33h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 12? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 33h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 12? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 33h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 12? BUY Yes 31¢ $3 35h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 12? BUY Yes 32¢ $3 35h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 12? BUY No 88¢ $9 36h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 12? BUY No 89¢ $5 37h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 12? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 37h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 12? BUY Yes 7¢ $0 37h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 12? SELL Yes 47¢ $2 38h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 12? BUY Yes 27¢ $3 38h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 +16.4% +5.3% 33% 33% +52.7%
≤30d 49 -15.3% -23.3% 24% 22% +5.9%
≤90d 422 -2.1% -11.4% 21% 19% -17.7%
all 434 -0.4% -9.9% 21% 20% -17.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover11.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 20% -17.2%
10% -18.5% 19% -25.1%
15% -26.4% 18% -32.4%
20% -33.6% 17% -39.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $89.45 · official $89.45 (match) · 1692 history records