Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T08:46:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

A1
0xa121…fc70
world · 8 markets active 2h ago
3.0score
+$1 +3%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$1 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY world specialist⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$14
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses5 / 1
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)6 / 8
History coverage43d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown96%
Kalshi-fit88%
Chart Positions 2 History 6 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? No 100¢ 99¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-0%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? No 92¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+8%)
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 22, 2026? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $11 $0 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 05 $2 $0 +27%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? Jun 05 $3 $0 +6%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026? May 30 $2 $0 +5%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Wuxi: Mark Lajal vs Dane Sweeny May 19 $4 +$2 +57%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 78% −$1
sports 10% +$2
finance 7% $0
other 5% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? BUY No 100¢ $12 1h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 96¢ $11 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY No 92¢ $2 15d
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $2 18d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 3¢ $2 22d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $3 25d
Wuxi: Mark Lajal vs Dane Sweeny BUY Mark Lajal 63¢ $4 37d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 79¢ $2 42d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +4.2% -5.8% 100% 0% -5.8%
≤30d 6 -0.3% -9.8% 83% 33% -4.8%
≤90d 6 -0.3% -9.8% 83% 33% -4.8%
all 6 -0.3% -9.8% 83% 33% -4.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 33% -4.8%
10% -18.4% 33% -13.9%
15% -26.3% 17% -22.2%
20% -33.5% 17% -29.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14.48 · official $14.48 (match) · 13 history records