Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T13:02:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
A1 0xa120…946a other 113 markets active 2h ago coverage 134d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$44 (+0%) realized +$44 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate18%20W / 90L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown43%max
Avg bet$261per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$102now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 61% −$20
politics 19% −$6
sports 13% +$70
tech 3% −$1
economics 2% $0
crypto 2% $0
culture 1% $0
finance 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-3.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.4% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 6 -0.1% -9.6% 17% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 66 -0.1% -9.6% 6% 0% -9.6%
all 110 +6.2% -3.9% 18% 9% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.9% 9% -9.4%
10% -13.1% 6% -18.1%
15% -21.5% 3% -26.0%
20% -29.2% 2% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +13% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$1 · ×7.52 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.71 per $1 lost it wins $1.71
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

134d coverage
Net worth$102
Realized+$44
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses20 / 90
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)110 / 113
History coverage134d
Avg bet$261
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown43%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 110 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,400 by end of June? No 100¢ 100¢ $38 $38 −$0 (-0%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $45 by end of June? No 100¢ 100¢ $35 $35 −$0 (-0%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $29 $29 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $33 $0 +0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Jun 14 $45 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $26 $0 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $29 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 31 $255 −$1 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $269 −$1 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 21 $569 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 17 $235 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 15 $286 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April? May 09 $35 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $140 in April? May 09 $51 $0 +0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 20 $430 $0 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $231 $0 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $232 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 18 $299 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 18 $222 $0 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 17 $804 −$1 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $211 $0 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $231 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $250 $0 -0%
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 16 $517 −$1 -0%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 16 $285 $0 -0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $559 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 15 $233 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $277 $0 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $497 −$1 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 14 $239 $0 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 13 $298 $0 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? Apr 13 $210 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 13 $250 $0 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 13 $208 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 12 $234 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 11 $773 −$1 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 11 $811 −$1 -0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 10 $242 $0 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 08 $271 $0 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? Apr 08 $453 $0 -0%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? Apr 07 $788 −$1 -0%
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 07 $217 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 07 $277 $0 -0%
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026? Apr 07 $308 $0 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? Apr 06 $241 $0 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 06 $261 $0 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 06 $288 $0 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 05 $281 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 05 $232 $0 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 04 $289 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 04 $288 $0 -0%
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2026? Apr 03 $537 −$1 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 03 $1,109 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in June? BUY No 100¢ $29 2h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $45 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $35 2h
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,400 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $38 2h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $33 2h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $33 8d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina SELL No 99¢ $45 9d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina BUY No 99¢ $45 12d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $26 15d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $26 21d
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $29 21d
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $29 23d
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $255 23d
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $255 26d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $268 26d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $269 31d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $289 32d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $289 35d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $235 36d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 100¢ $235 38d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $286 38d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $286 40d
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $35 54d
Will Solana reach $140 in April? BUY No 100¢ $51 55d
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $210 64d
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $210 65d
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 99¢ $231 65d
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $231 65d
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $232 65d
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $232 66d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $299 66d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $101.91 · official $101.92 (match) · 340 history records