Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:16:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A1 0xa120…9d6f crypto 65 markets active 5d ago coverage 3d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$25 (-13%) realized −$25 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -38% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -52% what you keep after slip
Net edge-52%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate38%25W / 40L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day41.7pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% −$27
other 3% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-44.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -27.6% -34.5% 62% 48% -18.0%
≤30d 65 -38.1% -44.0% 38% 32% -24.8%
≤90d 65 -38.1% -44.0% 38% 32% -24.8%
all 65 -38.1% -44.0% 38% 32% -24.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover41.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -44.0% 32% -24.8%
10% ← realistic here -49.4% 22% -32.0%
15% -54.3% 11% -38.6%
20% -58.7% 9% -44.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -38% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -44% → late -32% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$25
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses25 / 40
Open positions0
Markets (closed)65 / 65
History coverage3d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day41.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 65 Trades
no open positions (30 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 12 $6 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 12 $6 +$2 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 12 $6 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 12 $6 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 12 $6 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 11 $3 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 11 $3 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 11 $3 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 11 $3 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 11 $3 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$2 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$3 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$2 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$2 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 10 $6 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 10 $6 −$2 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 10 $3 −$1 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 10 $3 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 10 $3 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 09 $3 +$2 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 09 $2 +$2 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 09 $2 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 09 $3 $0 -16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET SELL Up 5¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $2 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 160 history records