Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T05:10:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A1 0xa11d…f795 sports 56 markets active 0h ago coverage 10d
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (212 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$83 (-13%) realized −$44 · open −$39
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -42% what you keep after slip
Net edge-42%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%17W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day212.4pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$215now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$27
14 days−$24
30 days−$24
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% −$57
sports 40% −$10
crypto 8% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (212 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-31.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -11.8% -20.2% 44% 44% -45.9%
≤30d 45 -24.0% -31.3% 38% 38% -17.3%
≤90d 45 -24.0% -31.3% 38% 38% -17.3%
all 45 -24.0% -31.3% 38% 38% -17.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover212.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -31.3% 38% -17.3%
10% ← realistic here -37.8% 36% -25.2%
15% -43.8% 33% -32.4%
20% -49.4% 31% -39.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -22% → late -26% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$4 · ×1.32 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$215
Realized−$44
Unrealized−$39
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses17 / 28
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions11
Markets (closed)45 / 56
History coverage10d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day212.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 45 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $49 $53 +$4 (+8%)
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $46 $39 −$8 (-17%)
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $61 $31 −$31 (-50%)
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $14 $24 +$10 (+75%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $19 $18 −$1 (-7%)
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $22 $16 −$6 (-25%)
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $17 $13 −$4 (-25%)
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $15 $12 −$4 (-25%)
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $6 $5 −$2 (-25%)
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+83%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 24 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $8 −$2 -19%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2 $0 +16%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $2 +$2 +88%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $10 −$3 -26%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5 Jun 11 $2 −$2 -98%
Spread: Knicks (-1.5) Jun 10 $4 −$4 -98%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 10 $2 +$2 +91%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 10 $2 +$2 +78%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 09 $2 +$2 +107%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $16 −$16 -98%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 09 $2 +$2 +95%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5 Jun 09 $2 +$2 +81%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) Jun 08 $2 −$2 -98%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5 Jun 08 $4 −$4 -97%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5 Jun 08 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 07 $3 +$1 +27%
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 07 $11 −$11 -97%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 7.5 Jun 06 $3 −$3 -98%
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5) Jun 06 $6 +$4 +60%
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 06 $6 −$6 -98%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5 Jun 06 $3 −$3 -97%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5 Jun 06 $3 −$3 -98%
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 06 $6 −$6 -98%
Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5) Jun 06 $3 −$3 -97%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 06 $6 −$6 -97%
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5) Jun 06 $3 −$3 -98%
Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5 Jun 06 $3 −$3 -97%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5 Jun 06 $3 +$3 +91%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 11.5 Jun 06 $6 +$5 +81%
Spread: Spurs (-25.5) Jun 06 $22 −$15 -70%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $6 +$12 +194%
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) Jun 06 $41 +$25 +61%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 06 $41 +$20 +50%
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 06 $3 +$3 +107%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 06 $3 −$3 -97%
Spread: Knicks (-15.5) Jun 06 $3 −$3 -96%
Spread: Knicks (-10.5) Jun 06 $3 −$3 -96%
Spread: Knicks (-12.5) Jun 06 $3 −$3 -96%
Athletics vs. Houston Astros Jun 06 $3 −$3 -98%
Spread: Knicks (-16.5) Jun 05 $3 −$3 -96%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 05 $3 −$3 -98%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 05 $6 +$8 +137%
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 05 $3 $0 -8%
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5) Jun 05 $6 +$5 +78%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2m
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2m
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 3m
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 4m
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 5m
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 14m
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 20m
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 29m
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 29m
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 30m
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 35m
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 35m
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 36m
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 36m
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 37m
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 46m
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 55m
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 56m
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 59m
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $214.80 · official $214.92 (match) · 2047 history records