Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T04:36:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A1 0xa11b…0073 world 43 markets active 1h ago coverage 542d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$5 (-0%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate45%19W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$60per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$4
14 days+$2
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 76% +$3
other 13% −$17
politics 10% +$2
sports 1% +$8
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +6.1% -4.0% 67% 11% -8.3%
≤30d 25 -0.1% -9.6% 48% 4% -9.3%
≤90d 33 -0.1% -9.6% 45% 3% -9.3%
all 42 +0.2% -9.3% 45% 7% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 7% -9.7%
10% -18.0% 7% -18.3%
15% -25.9% 7% -26.2%
20% -33.2% 2% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 47% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
84% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

542d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses19 / 23
Open positions1
Markets (closed)42 / 43
History coverage542d
Avg bet$60
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 42 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 47¢ 54¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 24 $95 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $49 +$1 +2%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $16 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 21 $1 +$1 +41%
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 21 $27 $0 +0%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 20 $44 +$2 +4%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $52 $0 -1%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $8 +$1 +6%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $4 $0 +2%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 16 $11 $0 -1%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $2 $0 -9%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 12 $68 −$2 -3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $34 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $224 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 09 $79 −$1 -1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 09 $3 −$1 -38%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 08 $41 +$1 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 07 $41 +$1 +1%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 06 $45 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 06 $10 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $74 +$1 +1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 04 $36 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 03 $3 −$1 -16%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 03 $38 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 02 $32 +$1 +4%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 24 $23 +$1 +4%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 23 $313 +$1 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 23 $37 $0 +0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 14 $275 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 14 $277 −$1 -0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 13 $251 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 12 $5 $0 -5%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 15, 2026? May 12 $250 +$2 +1%
Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by over 12%? Jun 26 $2 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in May? Jun 03 $2 $0 +2%
Manchester City wins the Premier League? Apr 14 $12 $0 -1%
Will the match between PAOK and FCSB end in a draw? Mar 04 $19 −$19 -100%
UNC Asheville vs. USC Upstate Feb 13 $10 +$8 +79%
Will Atletico Madrid win the UEFA Champions League? Dec 31 $3 $0 -6%
Will Christian McCaffrey be the top Fantasy Flex Player? Dec 31 $0 $0 +0%
Will John Thune be the next Senate Majority Leader? Dec 31 $8 $0 +0%
Will Gold close at $2,500-2,600 at the end of 2024? Dec 29 $3 +$1 +38%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $47 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $47 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $5 13h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $38 13h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $42 16h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 49¢ $5 22h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 49¢ $11 22h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 49¢ $16 23h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 2d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $27 3d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $27 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 83¢ $3 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 83¢ $38 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 83¢ $42 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 17¢ $8 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 16¢ $7 3d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 93¢ $40 4d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 93¢ $6 4d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 89¢ $44 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 89¢ $44 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 90¢ $44 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 19¢ $8 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 19¢ $8 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $3 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $6 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $8 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.47 · official $0.00 (match) · 176 history records