Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T11:54:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

A1
0xa116…8450
sports · 58 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$21 -18%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$21 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist
Net worth$9
Realized−$21
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses26 / 27
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions5
Markets (closed)53 / 58
History coverage77d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%
Chart Positions 5 History 53 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days−$3
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Yes 94¢ 94¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+0%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Yes 50¢ 50¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Yes 91¢ 90¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? Yes 24¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Charles Leclerc get pole position at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Yes 52¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Madrid Open: Xinyu Wang vs Laura Samson Xinyu Wang 53¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Madrid Open: Emilio Nava vs Valentin Vacherot Valentin Vacherot 74¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Gwangju: Yu-Hsiou Hsu vs Tristan Schoolkate Tristan Schoolkate 72¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Brandon Nakashima vs Nikoloz Basilashvili Brandon Nakashima 60¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Hamburg European Open: Hugo Gaston vs Karen Khachanov Hugo Gaston 44¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Madrid Open: Zhizhen Zhang vs Vit Kopriva Zhizhen Zhang 54¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Thunder vs. Spurs Spurs 38¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Internazionali BNL d'Italia, Qualification: Pablo Carreno Busta vs Martin Damm Martin Damm 32¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Athletic Club win on 2026-04-12? Yes 42¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-11? Yes 68¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-04? Yes 57¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Madrid Open: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Daniel Merida Aguilar Daniel Merida Aguilar 36¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2026-04-24? Yes 36¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
GPT-5.5 released by April 23, 2026? No 17¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-04-13? Yes 61¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Levante UD win on 2026-04-27? Yes 25¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Panthers vs. Senators Panthers 28¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-04-25? Yes 39¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +76%
Will Charles Leclerc get pole position at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Pri Jun 06 $4 −$4 -99%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $3 −$3 -98%
Hamburg European Open: Hugo Gaston vs Karen Khachanov May 19 $1 −$1 -98%
Zagreb: Joao Lucas Da Silva vs Luka Pavlovic May 19 $1 +$1 +101%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 19 $1 +$1 +65%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Brandon Nakashima vs Nikoloz Basilashvili May 11 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Trump visit China by May 15? May 07 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $1 −$1 -98%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Zhizhen Zhang vs Daniel Altmaier May 06 $1 −$1 -98%
Istanbul: Sarah Rakotomanga vs Alice Tubello May 06 $1 +$1 +73%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia, Qualification: Pedro Martinez vs Jesper d May 06 $1 +$1 +119%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-04? May 04 $1 −$1 -99%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia, Qualification: Pablo Carreno Busta vs Mar May 04 $1 −$1 -98%
Madrid Open: Mirra Andreeva vs Anna Bondar May 03 $1 $0 +23%
Madrid Open: Solana Sierra vs Karolina Pliskova May 03 $1 +$1 +70%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in April? May 03 $3 +$2 +70%
Will Levante UD win on 2026-04-27? Apr 27 $1 −$1 -98%
Madrid Open: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Daniel Merida Aguilar Apr 27 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 26 $1 +$1 +73%
Madrid Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Sofia Kenin Apr 25 $5 +$1 +26%
Madrid Open: Emilio Nava vs Valentin Vacherot Apr 24 $1 −$1 -99%
Gwangju: Yu-Hsiou Hsu vs Tristan Schoolkate Apr 24 $5 −$5 -99%
Madrid Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo Apr 24 $1 +$1 +65%
Madrid Open: Belinda Bencic vs Petra Marcinko Apr 23 $1 $0 +26%
Madrid Open: Cristian Garin vs Alexander Blockx Apr 23 $1 +$1 +55%
Madrid Open: Terence Atmane vs Miomir Kecmanovic Apr 23 $1 +$1 +93%
Madrid Open: Xinyu Wang vs Laura Samson Apr 23 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 23 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2026-04-24? Apr 23 $1 −$1 -98%
GPT-5.5 released by April 23, 2026? Apr 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Porsche Tennis Grand Prix: Alycia Parks vs Mirra Andreeva Apr 23 $1 $0 +27%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026? Apr 23 $2 +$4 +177%
Madrid Open: Zhizhen Zhang vs Vit Kopriva Apr 22 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-14? Apr 16 $5 +$7 +146%
Timberwolves vs. Rockets Apr 11 $5 +$1 +18%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-04-13? Apr 11 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-11? Apr 11 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Athletic Club win on 2026-04-12? Apr 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Joao Fonseca vs Alexander Zverev Apr 11 $5 +$3 +55%
Panthers vs. Senators Apr 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Andrey Rublev vs Nuno Borges Apr 07 $3 +$1 +31%
Rockets vs. Warriors Apr 06 $1 +$2 +158%
The Masters 2026: Hole in One? Apr 06 $1 −$1 -98%
Who will finish higher: Russell or Antonelli? Apr 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Miyazaki: Rio Noguchi vs Tung-Lin Wu Apr 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will there be a red flag during the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix? Apr 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Flames vs. Ducks Apr 06 $2 +$3 +127%
Miyazaki: Hayato Matsuoka vs Liam Broady Apr 04 $5 +$1 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 56% −$9
other 37% −$17
finance 3% +$2
world 2% +$4
politics 1% −$1
tech 1% −$1
culture 1% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $1 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 61¢ $1 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 91¢ $2 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 50¢ $2 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $3 6h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 56¢ $1 6h
Will Charles Leclerc get pole position at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Pri BUY Yes 52¢ $4 8d
Thunder vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 38¢ $3 22d
Hamburg European Open: Hugo Gaston vs Karen Khachanov BUY Hugo Gaston 44¢ $1 25d
Pistons vs. Cavaliers BUY Cavaliers 60¢ $1 34d
Thunder vs. Lakers BUY Lakers 19¢ $1 34d
Zagreb: Joao Lucas Da Silva vs Luka Pavlovic BUY Joao Lucas Da Silva 49¢ $1 34d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Brandon Nakashima vs Nikoloz Basilashvili BUY Brandon Nakashima 60¢ $1 34d
Will Trump visit China by May 15? BUY No 12¢ $1 38d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 39d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Zhizhen Zhang vs Daniel Altmaier BUY Zhizhen Zhang 40¢ $1 39d
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-04? BUY Yes 57¢ $1 41d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia, Qualification: Pablo Carreno Busta vs Mar BUY Martin Damm 32¢ $1 41d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia, Qualification: Pedro Martinez vs Jesper d BUY Jesper de Jong 45¢ $1 41d
Istanbul: Sarah Rakotomanga vs Alice Tubello BUY Alice Tubello 57¢ $1 41d
Will Levante UD win on 2026-04-27? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 48d
Madrid Open: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Daniel Merida Aguilar BUY Daniel Merida Aguilar 36¢ $1 48d
Madrid Open: Mirra Andreeva vs Anna Bondar BUY Mirra Andreeva 81¢ $1 48d
Madrid Open: Solana Sierra vs Karolina Pliskova BUY Karolina Pliskova 58¢ $1 48d
Madrid Open: Emilio Nava vs Valentin Vacherot BUY Valentin Vacherot 74¢ $1 51d
Madrid Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Sofia Kenin BUY Qinwen Zheng 79¢ $5 51d
Gwangju: Yu-Hsiou Hsu vs Tristan Schoolkate BUY Tristan Schoolkate 72¢ $5 51d
Madrid Open: Terence Atmane vs Miomir Kecmanovic BUY Terence Atmane 51¢ $1 52d
Madrid Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo BUY Juan Manuel Cerundolo 60¢ $1 52d
Madrid Open: Cristian Garin vs Alexander Blockx BUY Alexander Blockx 64¢ $1 52d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-22.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +76.2% +59.5% 100% 100% +59.5%
≤30d 6 -9.7% -18.3% 50% 50% -55.0%
≤90d 53 -13.8% -22.0% 49% 49% -27.3%
all 53 -13.8% -22.0% 49% 49% -27.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.0% 49% -27.3%
10% -29.5% 45% -34.3%
15% -36.3% 36% -40.6%
20% -42.5% 36% -46.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.00 · official $9.00 (match) · 89 history records