Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T11:21:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A1 0xa113…93f4 sports 448 markets active 2h ago coverage 138d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 138d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,624 (-2%) realized −$1,378 · open −$246
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate32%143W / 302L
Whale WR66%big bets
Drawdown60%max
Avg bet$202per market
Trades / day21.0pace
Fees−$520est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$1,196now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 138d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 46% −$2,204
weather 30% +$5,000
world 8% −$434
politics 7% +$998
other 5% +$235
culture 2% +$390
finance 2% +$118
crypto 0% −$87
tech 0% +$36
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-20.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -57.5% -61.5% 17% 17% -59.3%
≤30d 23 -18.4% -26.2% 26% 26% -19.2%
≤90d 271 -26.2% -33.3% 34% 28% -7.6%
all 445 -12.1% -20.5% 32% 27% -5.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.5% 27% -5.3%
10% ← realistic here -28.1% 24% -14.3%
15% -35.0% 20% -22.6%
20% -41.4% 16% -30.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 66% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late -24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$211 vs −$86 · ×2.46 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.17 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

138d coverage
Net worth$1,196
Realized−$1,378
Unrealized−$246
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses143 / 302
Whale WR (big bets)66%
Est. fees paid−$520
Open positions3
Markets (closed)445 / 448
History coverage138d ⚠
Avg bet$202
Trades / day21.0
Drawdown60%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 445 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will global temperature increase by between 1.15ºC and 1.19ºC in June 2026? Yes 72¢ 74¢ $884 $907 +$24 (+3%)
Will global temperature increase by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in June 2026? Yes 30¢ 16¢ $557 $288 −$269 (-48%)
Will global temperature increase by less than 1.10ºC in June 2026? Yes 9¢ 2¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-77%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $120 −$120 -100%
LoL: Galions vs Misa Esports - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $102 −$100 -98%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $404 +$222 +55%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $1,108 +$320 +29%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $503 −$500 -99%
LoL: G2 NORD vs WLGaming Esports (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group C Jun 12 $102 −$100 -98%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 (BO3) - LCS Regular Season Jun 12 $709 −$107 -15%
LoL: New Meta vs RAYN Clocks (BO3) - LJL Regular Season Jun 12 $264 −$264 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - Esports World Cup Kor Jun 12 $41 −$41 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - Esports World Cup EMEA Qualif Jun 12 $102 −$102 -100%
LoL: Estral Esports vs RED Academy (BO5) - Circuito Desafiante Playoff Jun 12 $25 −$25 -100%
LoL: SU Esports vs BoostGate Esports (BO5) - TCL Playoffs Jun 12 $204 −$204 -100%
LoL: Conviction vs Dorado Gaming (BO3) - North American Challengers Le Jun 12 $161 −$161 -100%
LoL: paiN Gaming Academy vs INTZ e-Sports - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $815 −$815 -100%
LoL: paiN Gaming Academy vs INTZ e-Sports - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $724 −$724 -100%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.15ºC and 1.19ºC in May 2 Jun 12 $2,084 −$1,776 -85%
Will global temperature increase by less than 1.10ºC in May 2026? Jun 12 $1,675 −$1,158 -69%
LoL: Misa Esports vs E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $206 +$518 +251%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in May 2 Jun 10 $3,215 +$2,971 +92%
LoL: paiN Gaming Academy vs INTZ e-Sports - Game 2 Winner May 19 $299 +$430 +144%
LoL: paiN Gaming Academy vs INTZ e-Sports (BO5) - Circuito Desafiante May 19 $1,410 −$204 -14%
LoL: DOCISK vs devils.one (BO3) - Rift Legends Regular Season May 19 $102 −$41 -40%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - Esports World Cup Korea Q May 19 $102 +$440 +430%
Counter-Strike: HereWeGoAgain vs Red Feet (BO3) - CCT South America Se May 19 $101 −$49 -49%
LoL: Gen.G Global Academy vs Hanwha Life Esports Challengers (BO3) - L May 18 $2,079 +$202 +10%
LoL: KT Rolster vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - Esports World Cup Korea Qualif May 18 $637 +$395 +62%
LoL: FlyQuest vs LYON (BO3) - LCS Regular Season May 18 $1,668 +$50 +3%
LoL: Sentinels vs Dignitas (BO3) - LCS Regular Season May 17 $1,292 +$33 +2%
LoL: Sentinels vs Dignitas - Game 1 Winner May 17 $315 +$39 +12%
LoL: GAM Esports vs CTBC Flying Oyster (BO3) - LCP Regular Season May 17 $482 +$498 +103%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 17 $508 +$547 +108%
LoL: RED Canids vs Fluxo W7M (BO5) - CBLOL Playoffs May 16 $979 −$194 -20%
LoL: Team WE vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend May 16 $546 +$193 +36%
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs DN SOOPers (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 15 $1,370 +$99 +7%
LoL: Maryville University vs Supernova (BO3) - North American Challeng May 14 $1,005 +$341 +34%
LoL: Fnatic vs Team Vitality (BO3) - LEC Regular Season May 14 $355 +$17 +5%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO3) - LCS Regular Season May 14 $233 −$107 -46%
LoL: Apex Mission Impossible vs Citadel Gaming (BO3) - North American May 14 $21 −$21 -100%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in April May 14 $1,572 −$1,219 -78%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in May 2 May 13 $2 $0 +17%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.15ºC and 1.19ºC in April May 11 $2,507 +$3,346 +134%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in April May 10 $1,929 −$1,108 -57%
Will Russia capture all of Lyman by December 31, 2026? May 08 $50 −$36 -72%
Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in second place in the first round of May 08 $2,878 +$95 +3%
Will Russia capture all of Lyman by June 30, 2026? May 08 $48 −$39 -81%
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by June 30, 2026? May 08 $55 −$33 -60%
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? May 01 $39 −$13 -34%
LoL: Top Esports vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend May 01 $213 −$208 -98%
LoL: Top Esports vs Anyone's Legend - Game 1 Winner May 01 $302 −$294 -97%
LoL: Sentinels vs FlyQuest - Game 4 Winner May 01 $51 −$51 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will global temperature increase by between 1.15ºC and 1.19ºC in June BUY Yes 74¢ $750 1h
Will global temperature increase by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in June SELL Yes 23¢ $3 14h
Will global temperature increase by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in June SELL Yes 23¢ $18 14h
Will global temperature increase by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in June SELL Yes 23¢ $4 19h
Will global temperature increase by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in June SELL Yes 26¢ $46 37h
Will global temperature increase by between 1.15ºC and 1.19ºC in June BUY Yes 60¢ $2 2d
Will global temperature increase by between 1.15ºC and 1.19ºC in June BUY Yes 60¢ $1 2d
Will global temperature increase by between 1.15ºC and 1.19ºC in June BUY Yes 60¢ $2 2d
Will global temperature increase by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in June SELL Yes 28¢ $97 2d
Will global temperature increase by between 1.15ºC and 1.19ºC in June BUY Yes 60¢ $24 2d
Will global temperature increase by between 1.15ºC and 1.19ºC in June BUY Yes 60¢ $18 2d
Will global temperature increase by between 1.15ºC and 1.19ºC in June BUY Yes 60¢ $9 2d
Will global temperature increase by between 1.15ºC and 1.19ºC in June BUY Yes 66¢ $89 2d
Will global temperature increase by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in June BUY Yes 21¢ $0 3d
Will global temperature increase by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in June BUY Yes 21¢ $1 3d
Will global temperature increase by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in June BUY Yes 21¢ $21 3d
Will global temperature increase by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in June BUY Yes 21¢ $0 3d
Will global temperature increase by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in June BUY Yes 21¢ $5 3d
Will global temperature increase by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in June BUY Yes 28¢ $20 3d
Will global temperature increase by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in June BUY Yes 21¢ $50 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 60¢ $120 4d
LoL: Galions vs Misa Esports - Game 1 Winner BUY Misa Esports 33¢ $102 4d
Will global temperature increase by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in June BUY Yes 18¢ $13 4d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs SELL Bilibili Gaming 100¢ $627 4d
Will global temperature increase by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in June BUY Yes 32¢ $538 4d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner SELL Bilibili Gaming 100¢ $1,427 4d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 64¢ $404 4d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 77¢ $1,108 4d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 79¢ $503 5d
Will global temperature increase by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in June BUY Yes 32¢ $5 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,196.12 · official $1,196.12 (match) · 3500 history records