Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T09:19:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A1 0xa113…bb53 sports 83 markets active 1h ago coverage 16d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$14,393 (-17%) realized −$20,644 · open +$6,251
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate39%31W / 48L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,041per market
Trades / day30.3pace
Fees−$1,464est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$12,983now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,889
7 days−$1,889
14 days−$12,455
30 days−$18,440
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$12,189
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-25.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -32.4% -38.8% 27% 27% -32.2%
≤30d 79 -17.7% -25.5% 39% 38% -31.3%
≤90d 79 -17.7% -25.5% 39% 38% -31.3%
all 79 -17.7% -25.5% 39% 38% -31.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover30.3 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -25.5% 38% -31.3%
10% -32.7% 38% -37.8%
15% ← realistic here -39.2% 35% -43.8%
20% -45.1% 30% -49.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$1,310) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -15% → late -20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$933 vs −$987 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$12,983
Realized−$20,644
Unrealized+$6,251
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses31 / 48
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Est. fees paid−$1,464
Open positions4
Markets (closed)79 / 83
History coverage16d
Avg bet$1,041
Trades / day30.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 79 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Honvéd vs OlyBet SB - Map 1 Winner OlyBet SB 35¢ 100¢ $2,691 $7,738 +$5,047 (+188%)
Map Handicap: Honvéd (-1.5) vs OlyBet SB (+1.5) OlyBet SB 65¢ 100¢ $3,250 $4,998 +$1,748 (+54%)
Counter-Strike: Honvéd vs OlyBet SB - Map 2 Winner Honvéd 40¢ 86¢ $82 $177 +$95 (+115%)
Counter-Strike: Honvéd vs OlyBet SB - Map 2 Winner OlyBet SB 36¢ 14¢ $180 $70 −$110 (-61%)
Valorant: Insomnia vs Fennel - Map 1 Winner Insomnia 49¢ 0¢ $433 $0 −$433 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 45 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 28 $93 −$91 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 28 $658 −$658 -100%
Counter-Strike: Game Hunters vs Vexa (BO3) - CCT South America Series Jun 27 $134 +$101 +75%
Counter-Strike: Bounty Hunters Esports vs UNO MILLE - Map 2 Winner Jun 27 $113 −$15 -14%
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN Jun 27 $1,883 −$1,124 -60%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eu Jun 27 $523 −$514 -98%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner Jun 27 $515 +$750 +146%
Counter-Strike: Bounty Hunters Esports vs UNO MILLE (BO3) - Thunderpic Jun 27 $528 −$522 -99%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Clo Jun 27 $1,682 +$1,612 +96%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 Winner Jun 27 $994 −$984 -99%
Counter-Strike: LPH Gaming vs Millennium Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 27 $449 −$443 -99%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $289 +$211 +73%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof Jun 16 $1,702 +$1,071 +63%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China Jun 16 $2,623 +$1,048 +40%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $329 +$612 +186%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $1,756 +$2,061 +117%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $834 −$819 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $941 +$1,645 +175%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $1,322 −$512 -39%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Jun 15 $743 −$735 -99%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $1,128 −$1,118 -99%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La Jun 15 $2,964 −$2,657 -90%
Dota 2: Lindorfitos vs x5 Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $407 −$399 -98%
Dota 2: Lindorfitos vs x5 Gaming (BO3) - The International South Ameri Jun 15 $3 −$3 -99%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $992 −$975 -98%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $427 +$464 +109%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $629 +$162 +26%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs G2 Ares - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $113 −$111 -98%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $954 −$951 -100%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs G2 Ares - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $43 −$42 -97%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $1,334 +$1,230 +92%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $1,124 +$1,220 +109%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $675 −$268 -40%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $371 +$572 +154%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $1,469 −$1,449 -99%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London Jun 14 $520 −$510 -98%
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Metizport - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $15 +$16 +104%
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Metizport (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs Jun 14 $325 −$262 -81%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $464 −$461 -99%
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Metizport - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $656 −$644 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $1,336 −$1,310 -98%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $7,774 −$7,654 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $384 −$376 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $2,051 −$2,020 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $3,401 +$5,140 +151%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $4,672 −$4,618 -99%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-6.5) vs 9z (+6.5) Jun 13 $183 +$2 +1%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $551 +$971 +176%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $1,862 +$2,431 +130%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $525 −$517 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Honvéd vs OlyBet SB - Map 2 Winner BUY Honvéd 40¢ $82 32m
Map Handicap: Honvéd (-1.5) vs OlyBet SB (+1.5) BUY OlyBet SB 65¢ $3,284 53m
Counter-Strike: Honvéd vs OlyBet SB - Map 1 Winner BUY OlyBet SB 45¢ $58 54m
Counter-Strike: Honvéd vs OlyBet SB - Map 1 Winner BUY OlyBet SB 45¢ $500 56m
Counter-Strike: Honvéd vs OlyBet SB - Map 1 Winner BUY OlyBet SB 33¢ $629 58m
Counter-Strike: Honvéd vs OlyBet SB - Map 1 Winner BUY OlyBet SB 31¢ $280 58m
Counter-Strike: Honvéd vs OlyBet SB - Map 1 Winner BUY OlyBet SB 33¢ $234 59m
Counter-Strike: Honvéd vs OlyBet SB - Map 1 Winner BUY OlyBet SB 32¢ $226 1h
Counter-Strike: Honvéd vs OlyBet SB - Map 1 Winner BUY OlyBet SB 35¢ $263 1h
Counter-Strike: Honvéd vs OlyBet SB - Map 1 Winner BUY OlyBet SB 35¢ $357 1h
Counter-Strike: Honvéd vs OlyBet SB - Map 1 Winner BUY OlyBet SB 26¢ $0 1h
Counter-Strike: Honvéd vs OlyBet SB - Map 2 Winner BUY OlyBet SB 36¢ $183 1h
Counter-Strike: Honvéd vs OlyBet SB - Map 1 Winner BUY OlyBet SB 29¢ $196 1h
Valorant: Insomnia vs Fennel - Map 1 Winner BUY Insomnia 66¢ $40 1h
Valorant: Insomnia vs Fennel - Map 1 Winner BUY Insomnia 48¢ $20 1h
Valorant: Insomnia vs Fennel - Map 1 Winner BUY Insomnia 48¢ $23 1h
Valorant: Insomnia vs Fennel - Map 1 Winner BUY Insomnia 48¢ $55 1h
Valorant: Insomnia vs Fennel - Map 1 Winner BUY Insomnia 48¢ $12 1h
Valorant: Insomnia vs Fennel - Map 1 Winner BUY Insomnia 48¢ $30 1h
Valorant: Insomnia vs Fennel - Map 1 Winner BUY Insomnia 47¢ $258 1h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY Team Liquid 10¢ $39 3h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY Team Liquid 22¢ $0 4h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY Team Liquid 22¢ $17 4h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY Team Liquid 22¢ $37 4h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Liquid 45¢ $31 4h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Liquid 45¢ $44 4h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Liquid 45¢ $9 4h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Liquid 45¢ $15 4h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Liquid 45¢ $338 4h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Liquid 45¢ $222 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12,983.28 · official $13,024.44 (match) · 515 history records