Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T16:02:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
A1 0xa111…3f22 sports 12 markets active 2h ago coverage 78d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$1,453 (+18%) realized +$1,273 · open +$180
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate62%5W / 3L
Drawdown39%max
Avg bet$662per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$28est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$3,385now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$521
7 days+$521
14 days+$421
30 days+$1,313
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 54% +$666
sports 27% +$133
finance 13% +$412
other 6% +$220
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)+0.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +51.5% +37.1% 100% 100% +37.1%
≤30d 5 +13.8% +3.0% 80% 80% +19.9%
≤90d 8 +10.6% +0.1% 62% 62% +14.4%
all 8 +10.6% +0.1% 62% 62% +14.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.1% 62% +14.4%
10% -9.5% 62% +3.5%
15% -18.2% 50% -6.5%
20% -26.2% 25% -15.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 49% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +26% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$369 vs −$197 · ×1.87 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.11 per $1 lost it wins $3.11
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

78d coverage
Net worth$3,385
Realized+$1,273
Unrealized+$180
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses5 / 3
Est. fees paid−$28
Open positions4
Markets (closed)8 / 12
History coverage78d
Avg bet$662
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown39%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? No 80¢ 86¢ $2,405 $2,590 +$185 (+8%)
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 Over 73¢ 72¢ $500 $497 −$3 (-1%)
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Over 52¢ 52¢ $200 $198 −$2 (-1%)
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 6.5 Over 8¢ 8¢ $100 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $505 +$220 +44%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $506 +$301 +60%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 08 $102 −$100 -98%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 03 $1,000 +$412 +41%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Jun 02 $1,924 +$481 +25%
UFC 327: Paulo Costa vs. Azamat Murzakanov (Light Heavyweight, Main Ca Apr 15 $199 +$430 +216%
UFC 327: Jirí Procházka vs. Carlos Ulberg (Light Heavyweight, Main Car Apr 08 $448 −$442 -98%
Manchester City FC vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 4.5 Apr 04 $50 −$50 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 8¢ $103 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 52¢ $203 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 73¢ $504 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 69¢ $505 20h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 62¢ $506 23h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 50¢ $102 13d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $1,412 17d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? BUY No 80¢ $2,405 18d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? BUY No 80¢ $1,924 67d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? BUY No 63¢ $1,000 68d
UFC 327: Paulo Costa vs. Azamat Murzakanov (Light Heavyweight, Main Ca BUY Paulo Costa 31¢ $199 70d
UFC 327: Jirí Procházka vs. Carlos Ulberg (Light Heavyweight, Main Car BUY Jirí Procházka 51¢ $448 73d
Manchester City FC vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 57¢ $50 78d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,384.53 · official $3,378.28 (match) · 17 history records