Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:26:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
A1 0xa110…e220 tech 10 markets active 6d ago coverage 86d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$2 (+7%) realized +$0 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +0% what you keep after slip
Net edge+0%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate89%8W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$11now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$3
14 days+$3
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
tech 38% +$2
economics 20% $0
politics 18% $0
sports 13% −$4
world 10% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)+0.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +63.2% +47.6% 100% 33% +43.6%
≤30d 3 +63.2% +47.6% 100% 33% +43.6%
≤90d 8 +12.2% +1.5% 88% 12% -10.4%
all 9 +10.9% +0.4% 89% 11% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.4% 11% -10.2%
10% -9.3% 11% -18.8%
15% -18.0% 11% -26.6%
20% -26.1% 11% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 93% · top 2 94% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$4 · ×0.12 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

86d coverage
Net worth$11
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)89%
Wins / losses8 / 1
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)9 / 10
History coverage86d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31? Yes 27¢ 58¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+117%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? Jun 17 $2 +$3 +186%
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $2 $0 +2%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? Jun 12 $1 $0 +2%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 11 $1 $0 +5%
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Apr 17 $5 $0 +0%
Will Park Chan-dae win the 2026 Incheon mayoral election? Apr 14 $5 $0 +1%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Apr 08 $1 $0 +2%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Mar 18 $5 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.61 · official $10.61 (match) · 15 history records