Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T21:25:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A1 0xa10c…7631 world 28 markets active 2h ago coverage 458d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$4 (-1%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate52%14W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 60% −$3
other 29% $0
finance 7% $0
sports 2% $0
politics 2% $0
tech 1% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-15.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.4% -9.9% 62% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 16 +0.5% -9.1% 50% 6% -10.1%
≤90d 16 +0.5% -9.1% 50% 6% -10.1%
all 27 -7.0% -15.9% 52% 4% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.9% 4% -10.0%
10% -23.9% 0% -18.6%
15% -31.3% 0% -26.5%
20% -38.0% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 66% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.32 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

458d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses14 / 13
Open positions1
Markets (closed)27 / 28
History coverage458d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 27 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Yes $0 $0 −$0 (-74%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 20 $46 +$1 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 20 $41 $0 +1%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $43 −$2 -4%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 19 $11 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 19 $47 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $46 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $6 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $59 −$1 -2%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 02 $10 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 01 $52 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 30 $35 −$1 -3%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 30 $43 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 30 $48 $0 -1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 29 $2 $0 +16%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 28 $43 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $48 −$1 -2%
Will the New Orleans Saints win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 07 $2 $0 +1%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Jul 01 $5 $0 -2%
Will Scott Stringer win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York C Jun 26 $0 $0 -100%
Will Solana dip to $140 in June? Jun 23 $0 $0 -100%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2025 Canadian GP pole? Jun 16 $2 $0 +3%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 30 $2 $0 +1%
Will the SPD be part of the next German government? May 07 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Liberal Party win less than 35% of the vote in the 2025 Canad Apr 23 $5 $0 -0%
Will Another team win the UEFA Europa League? Apr 23 $6 $0 +0%
Will Amazon buy TikTok? Apr 22 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 22 $11 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 74¢ $47 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 73¢ $46 3h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 84¢ $8 18h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 84¢ $33 18h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 83¢ $41 22h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 87¢ $8 26h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 87¢ $33 26h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 91¢ $43 28h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $11 34h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $4 36h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $7 36h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $47 42h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $47 44h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $47 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $46 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 15¢ $6 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 15¢ $6 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $15 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $12 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $3 2d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL Yes $0 16d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL Yes $2 18d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes $1 18d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes $1 18d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes $1 18d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes $0 18d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 31¢ $10 18d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 31¢ $7 18d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 31¢ $3 18d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL Yes $1 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.01 · official $0.00 (match) · 86 history records