Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T17:19:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A1 0xa109…f159 sports 30 markets active 1h ago coverage 25d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$214 (-29%) realized −$235 · open +$21
Gross ROI / mkt -59% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -63% what you keep after slip
Net edge-63%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate24%6W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$221now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$46
7 days−$95
14 days−$94
30 days−$210
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 50% −$273
other 35% +$63
world 13% +$25
culture 1% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-62.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -49.5% -54.3% 31% 31% -34.6%
≤30d 25 -58.7% -62.7% 24% 24% -44.5%
≤90d 25 -58.7% -62.7% 24% 24% -44.5%
all 25 -58.7% -62.7% 24% 24% -44.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -62.7% 24% -44.5%
10% -66.2% 20% -49.8%
15% -69.5% 16% -54.7%
20% -72.5% 8% -59.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 57% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -39% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -59% · $-wt -39% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -69% → late -50% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$17 · ×1.12 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.35 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

25d coverage
Net worth$221
Realized−$235
Unrealized+$21
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses6 / 19
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions5
Markets (closed)25 / 30
History coverage25d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 25 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 50¢ 76¢ $50 $76 +$26 (+51%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? Yes 69¢ 63¢ $50 $46 −$4 (-9%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-2%)
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Yes 47¢ 50¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $31 −$30 -97%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Jun 18 $42 −$41 -98%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? Jun 18 $50 +$14 +28%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? Jun 17 $50 +$11 +21%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $17 −$17 -99%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 12 $20 −$20 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $31 +$51 +165%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $30 +$13 +42%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $7 −$7 -99%
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 11 $10 −$3 -31%
Game Handicap: BLG (-1.5) vs Anyone's Legend (+1.5) Jun 08 $20 +$12 +57%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE - Game 1 Winner Jun 01 $24 −$24 -99%
LoL: Team Vitality vs GIANTX (BO5) - LEC Playoffs May 31 $20 −$20 -98%
Game Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs GIANTX (+1.5) May 31 $30 −$30 -99%
Game Handicap: HLE (-1.5) vs HANJIN BRION (+1.5) May 31 $30 +$15 +50%
Game Handicap: TSW (-1.5) vs Deep Cross Gaming (+1.5) May 31 $10 −$10 -99%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 May 31 $20 −$20 -98%
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Iga Swiatek May 31 $10 −$10 -99%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 1 Winner May 26 $9 −$9 -98%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Play-In May 24 $8 −$8 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 50¢ $51 1h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Yakult Brothers $31 6h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs BUY T1 Academy 45¢ $42 7h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 65¢ $51 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 25¢ $31 2d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $20 2d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? BUY No 78¢ $50 2d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? BUY No 83¢ $50 2d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 39¢ $10 2d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 50¢ $10 2d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 20¢ $5 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 56¢ $17 4d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 34¢ $31 4d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $20 6d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $20 6d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $7 7d
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL Yes 46¢ $7 7d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $31 7d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $30 7d
Game Handicap: BLG (-1.5) vs Anyone's Legend (+1.5) BUY Bilibili Gaming 63¢ $20 10d
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? BUY Yes 69¢ $50 12d
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE - Game 1 Winner BUY Anyones Legend 78¢ $24 17d
LoL: Team Vitality vs GIANTX (BO5) - LEC Playoffs BUY Team Vitality 49¢ $20 18d
Game Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs GIANTX (+1.5) BUY Team Vitality 57¢ $30 18d
Game Handicap: TSW (-1.5) vs Deep Cross Gaming (+1.5) BUY Team Secret Whales 64¢ $10 18d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $20 18d
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Iga Swiatek BUY Iga Swiatek 71¢ $10 18d
Game Handicap: HLE (-1.5) vs HANJIN BRION (+1.5) BUY Hanwha Life Esports 66¢ $30 18d
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 1 Winner BUY Dplus KIA 30¢ $9 23d
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $220.96 · official $220.96 (match) · 37 history records