Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T23:25:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5

score

A1 0xa107…dc63 sports 3 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL +$11 (+7%) realized +$20 · open −$9

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip

Net edge-8%after slip

Net WR50%break-even

Win rate50%1W / 1L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$53per market

Trades / day6.0pace

Fees−$2est.

Kalshi-fit67%portable

Net worth$66now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)-4.4%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	2	+5.7%	-4.4%	50%	50%	+5.0%
≤30d	2	+5.7%	-4.4%	50%	50%	+5.0%
≤90d	2	+5.7%	-4.4%	50%	50%	+5.0%
all	2	+5.7%	-4.4%	50%	50%	+5.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover6.0 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-4.4%	50%	+5.0%
10%	-13.5%	50%	-5.1%
15%	-21.9%	50%	-14.3%
20%	-29.5%	50%	-22.7%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +16% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +6% · $-wt +16% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$31 vs −$17 · ×1.77 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×1.77 per $1 lost it wins $1.77

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$66

Realized+$20

Unrealized−$9

Win rate (resolved)50%

Wins / losses1 / 1

Est. fees paid−$2

Open positions1

Markets (closed)2 / 3

History coverage1d

Avg bet$53

Trades / day6.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 2 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 1.5	Over	57¢	50¢	$75	$66	−$9 (-12%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 19	$50	+$31	+62%
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert	Jun 19	$34	−$17	-51%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 1.5	BUY Over	74¢	$25	56m
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 1.5	BUY Over	51¢	$51	1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	61¢	$50	9h
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert	BUY Hamad Medjedovic	45¢	$16	11h
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert	SELL Ugo Humbert	55¢	$17	11h
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert	BUY Ugo Humbert	57¢	$18	17h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $66.01 · official $67.33 · 9 history records