Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:55:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
A1 0xa104…acb8 other 26 markets active 0h ago coverage 83d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$6 (-0%) realized −$5 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 25L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$380per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$1,116now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 53% −$5
other 27% −$3
world 9% $0
crypto 9% −$1
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 25 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
all 25 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$791) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
— vs −$0 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

83d coverage
Net worth$1,116
Realized−$5
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 25
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)25 / 26
History coverage83d
Avg bet$380
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 25 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $1,117 $1,116 −$1 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Grigor Dimitrov be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 18 $53 $0 -0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $1,136 $0 -0%
Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $1,222 −$2 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Apr 19 $69 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $35 $0 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Apr 19 $28 $0 -0%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 16 $39 $0 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $46 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 in April? Apr 16 $775 −$1 -0%
Will Hubert Hurkacz win the 2026 Men's US Open? Apr 16 $34 $0 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Apr 16 $791 −$1 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $796 −$1 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 15 $64 $0 -0%
Will the US x Iran ceasefire be extended by April 14, 2026? Apr 15 $18 $0 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 15 $795 −$1 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 14 $804 −$1 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $41 $0 -0%
Will A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP) gain the most seats in the next Apr 14 $833 $0 +0%
Will Liudmila Samsonova be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Apr 14 $774 −$1 -0%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $800B and $900B at market close on Apr 01 $132 $0 -0%
Will Sébastien Lecornu win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 01 $61 $0 -0%
Will Roberto Chiabra win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 01 $20 $0 -0%
Will Zach Johnson win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 27 $145 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Mar 27 $23 $0 -0%
Will Solana reach $150 in March? Mar 27 $26 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Grigor Dimitrov be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL No 100¢ $53 5m
Will Grigor Dimitrov be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 100¢ $13 11m
Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,065 21m
Will Grigor Dimitrov be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 100¢ $25 28m
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes $2 36m
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $167 46m
Will Grigor Dimitrov be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 100¢ $15 51m
Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $39 1h
Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $853 1h
Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $13 1h
Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $335 1h
Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,191 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $69 59d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $35 59d
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $51 59d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $17 59d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $13 59d
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $18 59d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $11 59d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $22 59d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $28 59d
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL No 100¢ $39 62d
Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $31 62d
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY No 100¢ $39 62d
Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $31 62d
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 99¢ $46 62d
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 in April? SELL No 100¢ $775 62d
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $11 62d
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $725 62d
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $11 62d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,116.32 · official $1,116.32 (match) · 82 history records