Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:17:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A1 0xa103…db38 crypto 1337 markets active 6d ago coverage 74d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 73d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$15,784 (-10%) realized −$15,784 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate46%609W / 728L
Whale WR48%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$118per market
Trades / day31.4pace
Fees−$184est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$140
14 days−$140
30 days−$2,008
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 93% −$13,538
sports 7% −$1,062
other 0% +$171
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-17.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 -1.2% -10.6% 49% 49% -16.7%
≤30d 123 -21.1% -28.6% 40% 38% -43.6%
≤90d 1337 -9.3% -17.9% 46% 45% -17.8%
all 1337 -9.3% -17.9% 46% 45% -17.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover31.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.9% 45% -17.8%
10% ← realistic here -25.8% 45% -25.7%
15% -33.0% 44% -32.9%
20% -39.5% 42% -39.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 48% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -6% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$94 vs −$99 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

74d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$15,784
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses609 / 728
Whale WR (big bets)48%
Est. fees paid−$184
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1337 / 1337
History coverage74d ⚠
Avg bet$118
Trades / day31.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1337 Trades
no open positions (23 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 12 $47 −$45 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 12 $31 −$30 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 12 $21 +$12 +58%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 12 $52 +$19 +36%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 12 $26 +$23 +88%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 12 $36 −$35 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 12 $36 +$27 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 12 $41 −$40 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 12 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 12 $57 −$55 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 12 $57 −$17 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 12 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 12 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 12 $21 +$12 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$11 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$19 +185%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 12 $26 +$24 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -96%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $48 +$26 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 11 $26 +$19 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 11 $26 +$15 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 11 $41 +$27 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 11 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 11 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 11 $21 +$17 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 11 $15 +$12 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 11 $26 +$21 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 11 $21 −$20 -97%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $57 −$51 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 11 $21 +$25 +121%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 11 $35 +$37 +104%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $70 +$82 +116%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $32 −$31 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $65 −$42 -64%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $70 +$43 +62%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $50 −$49 -98%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Virtus.pro - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $42 −$22 -53%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $68 +$74 +109%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $74 −$6 -9%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $99 −$97 -99%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $10 $0 -1%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $46 −$36 -77%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $25 +$22 +87%
Counter-Strike: ARCRED vs INOX Division (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series G Jun 03 $26 −$15 -57%
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs Lynn Vision (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 02 $27 −$27 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 01 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 01 $5 +$8 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 01 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 01 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 01 $15 −$15 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $21 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $21 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $10 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $10 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $5 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $10 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET SELL Down 85¢ $42 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET SELL Down 87¢ $26 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $10 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $5 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $21 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET SELL Down 92¢ $49 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $21 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $5 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $21 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $10 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $5 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $21 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $21 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $21 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records