Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T12:22:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A1 0xa102…7e2d other 229 markets active 1h ago coverage 134d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$78 (-0%) realized −$78 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%12W / 217L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$253per market
Trades / day10.1pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$19
14 days−$30
30 days−$41
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% −$42
sports 22% −$18
politics 8% −$11
economics 7% −$6
culture 6% −$7
world 3% −$4
crypto 3% −$2
tech 1% −$1
finance 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 64 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 169 -0.2% -9.7% 5% 0% -9.7%
all 229 -0.2% -9.7% 5% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 71% · top 2 80% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.05 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

134d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$78
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses12 / 217
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)229 / 229
History coverage134d
Avg bet$253
Trades / day10.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 229 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $509 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 18 $580 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $336 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $767 −$1 -0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Jun 17 $81 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $164 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $587 −$1 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $555 −$1 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 17 $360 −$1 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $738 −$1 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $226 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $446 −$1 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $172 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $744 −$1 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $61 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $516 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $260 $0 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $635 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $311 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $990 −$1 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $228 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 14 $660 −$1 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $408 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $127 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $495 −$1 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $354 −$1 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 13 $256 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 11 $730 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $513 −$1 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $655 −$1 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $149 $0 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 09 $289 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $805 −$1 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $718 −$1 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 08 $364 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 08 $223 $0 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 08 $167 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $469 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $214 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 07 $218 −$1 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 07 $295 −$1 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 06 $227 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $234 $0 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 05 $475 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 04 $154 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 03 $139 $0 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 02 $141 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 02 $280 $0 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 01 $229 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? May 31 $309 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $59 1h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $59 2h
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $59 5h
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $59 7h
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $59 7h
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $59 8h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $59 11h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $60 13h
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 SELL No 98¢ $60 13h
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 BUY No 98¢ $60 15h
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $60 17h
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 99¢ $60 19h
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $60 20h
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $60 22h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $60 23h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $60 24h
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $60 26h
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $60 28h
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $60 30h
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $60 32h
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 98¢ $60 32h
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $60 33h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $60 42h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $60 43h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $60 45h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $61 47h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $61 2d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $61 2d
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $61 2d
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $61 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1409 history records