Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T04:15:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
A1 0xa100…3589 world 11 markets active 2h ago coverage 89d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$72 (+2%) realized +$74 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate70%7W / 3L
Drawdown18%max
Avg bet$342per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$365now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$15
14 days−$15
30 days+$24
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 41% −$16
sports 37% +$84
other 22% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -3.2% -12.4% 50% 0% -12.5%
≤30d 5 -0.3% -9.8% 60% 0% -8.1%
≤90d 10 +0.9% -8.7% 70% 0% -7.7%
all 10 +0.9% -8.7% 70% 0% -7.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.7% 0% -7.7%
10% -17.5% 0% -16.5%
15% -25.5% 0% -24.6%
20% -32.8% 0% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 72% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$7 · ×1.9 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.43 per $1 lost it wins $4.43
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

89d coverage
Net worth$365
Realized+$74
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses7 / 3
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)10 / 11
History coverage89d
Avg bet$342
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown18%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture Sofiivka by June 30? No 93¢ 92¢ $367 $365 −$2 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Modi out by December 31, 2026? Jun 18 $224 $0 +0%
Will Russia enter Krasnoiarske by July 31? Jun 17 $235 −$15 -6%
Spread: Rosenborg BK (-1.5) Jun 02 $488 +$41 +8%
Will Russia rejoin the G7 before 2027? May 29 $483 +$2 +0%
Will a US ally get a nuke before 2027? May 27 $111 −$4 -4%
Spread: Qingdao Hainiu FC (-2.5) May 07 $470 +$20 +4%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 06 $479 +$3 +1%
Spread: Al Riyadh Saudi Club (-1.5) Apr 30 $438 +$22 +5%
Taiwanese Premier Cho Jung-tai out by June 30, 2026? Apr 29 $441 −$1 -0%
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by March 31? Mar 27 $29 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture Sofiivka by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $367 1h
Modi out by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $224 4d
Modi out by December 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $224 5d
Will Russia enter Krasnoiarske by July 31? SELL No 86¢ $219 5d
Will Russia enter Krasnoiarske by July 31? BUY No 92¢ $235 5d
Spread: Rosenborg BK (-1.5) BUY FK Bodø/Glimt 92¢ $488 25d
Will Russia rejoin the G7 before 2027? SELL No 95¢ $484 25d
Will Russia rejoin the G7 before 2027? BUY No 95¢ $483 25d
Will a US ally get a nuke before 2027? SELL Yes 10¢ $53 26d
Will a US ally get a nuke before 2027? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 26d
Will a US ally get a nuke before 2027? SELL Yes 10¢ $53 26d
Will a US ally get a nuke before 2027? BUY Yes 10¢ $56 26d
Will a US ally get a nuke before 2027? BUY Yes 11¢ $55 26d
Spread: Qingdao Hainiu FC (-2.5) BUY Wuhan San Zhen FC 96¢ $470 47d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL No 99¢ $482 47d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab BUY No 99¢ $479 47d
Spread: Al Riyadh Saudi Club (-1.5) BUY Al Qadisiyah Saudi Club 95¢ $438 54d
Taiwanese Premier Cho Jung-tai out by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $440 54d
Taiwanese Premier Cho Jung-tai out by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $441 54d
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by March 31? SELL No 98¢ $10 87d
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by March 31? SELL No 97¢ $19 88d
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by March 31? BUY No 97¢ $29 88d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $365.38 · official $365.38 (match) · 25 history records