Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T14:27:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A0 0xa0fd…237c crypto 693 markets active 2h ago coverage 227d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 227d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,576 (-2%) realized −$1,576 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate49%341W / 352L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$95per market
Trades / day13.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$37
7 days+$19
14 days+$27
30 days−$328
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% −$868
world 2% −$539
weather 1% −$176
other 0% +$8
sports 0% −$2
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-13.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +1.7% -8.0% 50% 19% -8.1%
≤30d 23 -8.4% -17.1% 52% 26% -24.1%
≤90d 40 -7.0% -15.8% 48% 25% -23.4%
all 693 -4.0% -13.2% 49% 36% -11.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.2% 36% -11.7%
10% -21.5% 27% -20.1%
15% -29.1% 23% -27.9%
20% -36.0% 20% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$53 vs −$56 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

227d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,576
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses341 / 352
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)693 / 693
History coverage227d ⚠
Avg bet$95
Trades / day13.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 693 Trades
no open positions (329 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8AM ET Jun 23 $196 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8PM ET Jun 23 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10AM ET Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9AM ET Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8AM ET Jun 22 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10PM ET Jun 22 $164 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9PM ET Jun 22 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8PM ET Jun 22 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10AM ET Jun 21 $85 +$15 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9AM ET Jun 21 $95 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8AM ET Jun 21 $95 −$95 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7AM ET Jun 21 $198 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2AM ET Jun 21 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1AM ET Jun 21 $20 +$80 +400%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12AM ET Jun 21 $20 +$80 +400%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12AM ET Jun 20 $196 +$4 +2%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $31 +$5 +16%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $27 −$27 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $70 +$30 +44%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 26 $193 +$6 +3%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27? May 25 $192 −$192 -100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 26? May 25 $197 −$197 -100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23? May 25 $173 +$28 +16%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25? May 24 $191 −$191 -100%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Selangor Red Giants vs Team Rey (BO3) - MPL May 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9PM ET May 23 $20 +$80 +400%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 1AM ET May 23 $97 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8AM ET May 23 $60 +$40 +68%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 21? May 23 $392 +$7 +2%
Counter-Strike: Gaimin Gladiators vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - BC G May 23 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10PM ET May 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 8PM ET May 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9AM ET May 18 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 12AM ET May 18 $20 +$80 +400%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2AM ET May 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1AM ET May 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 8AM ET May 17 $83 −$82 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 8PM ET May 17 $94 +$6 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 13°C on March 19? May 17 $78 +$28 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 8AM ET May 13 $30 −$30 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 14°C on March 21? Mar 20 $173 −$173 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 14°C on March 20? Mar 19 $56 −$56 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 13°C on March 17? Mar 17 $101 +$24 +24%
Will Rob Jetten become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands? Mar 17 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 8PM ET Mar 17 $49 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 11PM ET Mar 17 $50 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 8PM ET Mar 17 $97 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 7PM ET Mar 17 $96 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 8AM ET Mar 17 $95 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 11PM ET Mar 17 $98 +$2 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $99 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $97 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $5 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10AM ET BUY Up 0¢ $0 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10AM ET BUY Up 0¢ $0 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10AM ET BUY Up 0¢ $0 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10AM ET BUY Up 0¢ $2 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $0 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $2 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $4 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $2 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $9 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $164 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9PM ET BUY Down 0¢ $0 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9PM ET BUY Down 0¢ $1 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9PM ET BUY Down 0¢ $1 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $5 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $3 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $2 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $0 37h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3400 history records