Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T06:13:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A0 0xa0fb…e95d other 261 markets active 1h ago coverage 143d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$83 (-0%) realized −$83 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate6%16W / 245L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$218per market
Trades / day10.1pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$16
14 days−$27
30 days−$39
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$40
sports 25% −$22
politics 8% −$10
culture 7% −$7
economics 5% −$5
crypto 5% −$7
world 3% −$4
tech 1% −$2
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 74 -0.2% -9.7% 1% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 178 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
all 261 -0.2% -9.7% 6% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

143d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$83
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses16 / 245
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions0
Markets (closed)261 / 261
History coverage143d
Avg bet$218
Trades / day10.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 261 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 18 $470 −$1 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $452 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $265 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $137 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $121 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $520 −$1 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $407 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 16 $56 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 16 $459 −$1 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $174 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $326 $0 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $192 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $57 $0 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 14 $259 −$1 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $611 −$1 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $341 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $455 −$1 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $291 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $314 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $58 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $679 −$1 -0%
Will Philadelphia Union win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 12 $50 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $119 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $514 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $687 −$1 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $555 −$1 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $162 $0 +0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 11 $213 −$1 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $280 −$1 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $402 −$1 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 09 $283 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 08 $687 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 08 $754 −$1 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $345 −$1 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $457 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $525 −$1 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 07 $233 $0 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 07 $395 −$1 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $152 $0 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 06 $131 $0 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 06 $195 $0 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 06 $389 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $622 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $616 −$1 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 05 $181 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $129 $0 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 04 $62 $0 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 03 $63 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 02 $137 $0 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 02 $137 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $55 1h
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $55 2h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $55 4h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $55 6h
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $55 10h
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $55 12h
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $55 17h
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $55 18h
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $55 26h
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $55 27h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $55 29h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $55 31h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $55 32h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $55 33h
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $56 36h
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $56 38h
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? SELL No 99¢ $56 39h
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? BUY No 100¢ $56 41h
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $56 42h
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $56 43h
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $56 45h
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $56 46h
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $56 2d
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $56 2d
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $56 2d
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $56 2d
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $56 2d
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $56 2d
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 97¢ $56 2d
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 97¢ $57 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1517 history records