Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T20:32:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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A0 0xa0f9…689e crypto 174 markets active 1h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$11 (+0%) realized +$7 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate98%163W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day18.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$140now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$14
7 days−$7
14 days+$4
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 90% +$1
politics 6% +$4
other 2% +$1
sports 2% +$1
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 144 -0.2% -9.7% 97% 1% -9.9%
≤30d 167 +0.4% -9.2% 98% 1% -9.4%
≤90d 167 +0.4% -9.2% 98% 1% -9.4%
all 167 +0.4% -9.2% 98% 1% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 1% -9.4%
10% -17.9% 0% -18.0%
15% -25.8% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.1% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$15 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$140
Realized+$7
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)98%
Wins / losses163 / 4
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions7
Markets (closed)167 / 174
History coverage10d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day18.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 167 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 4–8%? No 93¢ 100¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+7%)
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 4–8%? No 96¢ 100¢ $19 $20 +$1 (+5%)
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 8–12%? No 99¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 8–12%? No 97¢ 100¢ $19 $20 +$1 (+3%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 12%+? No 98¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+2%)
Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election be greater than 85%? No 98¢ 99¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election be less than 70%? No 98¢ 99¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on June 15? Jun 15 $15 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 15? Jun 15 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 14? Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National A Jun 14 $19 +$1 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $13 +$1 +5%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 14 $14 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 14 $14 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 14? Jun 14 $20 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 14 $14 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 14 $14 +$1 +6%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 14 $14 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 14 $14 +$2 +11%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 13 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 13 $15 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 13 $15 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 2PM ET Jun 13 $9 +$1 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 2PM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 13 $15 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 13 $15 $0 +2%
Will the announcers say "What A Save" during the USA vs Paraguay FIFA Jun 13 $8 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 52m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 2h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on June 15? BUY Yes 98¢ $15 5h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 99¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $15 5h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 15? BUY No 98¢ $15 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $15 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $15 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $15 14h
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 14? BUY No 98¢ $5 17h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $15 19h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 21h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $13 22h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $14 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $14 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 14? BUY Down 99¢ $20 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $15 29h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $14 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $15 32h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $140.42 · official $140.42 (match) · 343 history records