Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T22:36:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
A0 0xa0f9…07f1 crypto 36 markets active 1h ago coverage 113d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$35 (+6%) realized +$26 · open +$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +3% what you keep after slip
Net edge+3%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate38%13W / 21L
Drawdown91%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$139now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$23
14 days−$23
30 days−$23
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 42% −$167
other 40% +$26
world 10% +$224
sports 7% −$40
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)+2.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -17.1% -25.0% 56% 56% -25.7%
≤30d 9 -17.1% -25.0% 56% 56% -25.7%
≤90d 28 -36.2% -42.3% 36% 36% -58.6%
all 34 +13.4% +2.6% 38% 32% -2.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.6% 32% -2.2%
10% -7.2% 32% -11.5%
15% -16.2% 26% -20.1%
20% -24.4% 18% -27.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 84% · top 2 89% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -54% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +52% → late -25% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$13 · ×1.81 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.12 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

113d coverage
Net worth$139
Realized+$26
Unrealized+$9
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses13 / 21
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)34 / 36
History coverage113d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown91%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Yes 89¢ 88¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 60¢ 80¢ $30 $40 +$10 (+32%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $10 +$3 +32%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 +$6 +57%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 +$4 +40%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 +$14 +67%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $20 +$10 +50%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $21 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Apr 02 $2 +$3 +165%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Mar 31 $2 +$3 +158%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Mar 31 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Mar 31 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Mar 31 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Mar 31 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Mar 31 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Mar 31 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Mar 29 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Mar 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Mar 29 $4 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Mar 29 $7 +$3 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Mar 29 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Mar 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Mar 29 $38 −$38 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Mar 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Mar 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 11PM ET Mar 28 $20 −$8 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Mar 25 $2 +$2 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Mar 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Mar 14 $5 $0 +2%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Mar 14 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 9PM ET Mar 06 $18 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Mar 06 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 28, 2026 (ET)? Mar 06 $15 +$265 +1765%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $100 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $30 1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 25¢ $20 28h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 75¢ $10 28h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $10 28h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $34 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $10 2d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $20 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $30 3d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 3d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $21 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $20 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $2 80d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $2 80d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $3 80d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $25 81d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $11 82d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $14 82d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 82d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 82d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 82d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 82d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $1 82d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $6 82d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $0 82d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $6 82d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $1 82d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $2 82d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $2 82d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $139.19 · official $139.19 (match) · 92 history records