Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T21:11:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
A0 0xa0f6…4892 sports 247 markets active 1h ago coverage 170d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$1,976 (+9%) realized +$2,020 · open −$44
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate42%101W / 142L
Drawdown96%max
Avg bet$86per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$71est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$94now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$232
7 days+$640
14 days+$766
30 days+$984
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 52% +$2,143
other 39% −$408
crypto 8% +$44
world 1% +$117
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-7.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 +51.6% +37.1% 47% 47% +32.6%
≤30d 71 +15.5% +4.5% 42% 42% +12.9%
≤90d 188 -29.8% -36.5% 27% 27% -33.6%
all 243 +2.7% -7.0% 42% 42% -1.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.0% 42% -1.2%
10% -15.9% 41% -10.7%
15% -24.1% 40% -19.3%
20% -31.5% 40% -27.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -27% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +15% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$118 vs −$70 · ×1.68 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.2 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

170d coverage
Net worth$94
Realized+$2,020
Unrealized−$44
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses101 / 142
Est. fees paid−$71
Open positions3
Markets (closed)243 / 247
History coverage170d
Avg bet$86
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown96%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 243 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Deniz Undav be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $58 $93 +$35 (+61%)
Netanyahu out by June 30? Yes 13¢ $20 $1 −$19 (-97%)
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 1.5 Over 45¢ $60 $0 −$60 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 69 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) Jun 24 $31 −$30 -98%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $51 +$56 +109%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $20 +$85 +414%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Uzbekistan O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 23 $20 −$20 -98%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $15 −$15 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -97%
Jordan vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $61 +$64 +105%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $30 +$60 +203%
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $101 +$71 +70%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $51 +$46 +90%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 23 $36 −$35 -98%
Spread: France (-3.5) Jun 23 $20 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 22 $21 −$20 -97%
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $152 −$150 -98%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $102 −$102 -100%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 Jun 21 $51 −$50 -98%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $25 +$36 +140%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $10 +$95 +925%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $54 −$54 -100%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $38 −$38 -100%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $108 +$305 +282%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $104 +$96 +92%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20 Jun 20 $41 +$99 +242%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $31 +$85 +276%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $41 +$39 +97%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 18 $15 −$15 -97%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score in First H Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $102 +$103 +101%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $21 −$20 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $102 +$116 +114%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $50 +$60 +119%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $202 +$106 +52%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $41 −$40 -98%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 3 New Zealand? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: New Zealand O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $39 −$39 -100%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 3 New Zealand? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $31 +$63 +206%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $61 −$60 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $21 −$20 -97%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $101 +$95 +93%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $61 +$55 +90%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $44 +$142 +323%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $21 −$20 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 1.5 BUY Over 45¢ $61 1h
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) BUY Croatia 25¢ $31 20h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Uzbekistan O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Over 21¢ $20 27h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 36¢ $15 27h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 19¢ $20 28h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 47¢ $51 28h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes $10 28h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score AND Portugal vs. Uzbekist BUY 31¢ $41 28h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway $15 43h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 33¢ $30 43h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 52¢ $51 44h
Spread: France (-3.5) BUY France 29¢ $20 44h
Jordan vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $61 46h
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes $21 46h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 22¢ $20 46h
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 58¢ $101 46h
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $152 2d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $88 3d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $15 3d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 35¢ $51 3d
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 49¢ $10 3d
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 49¢ $44 3d
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 25¢ $38 3d
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 22¢ $10 3d
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 BUY Under $10 3d
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 41¢ $25 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 19¢ $51 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 38¢ $57 4d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $104 4d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20 BUY 29¢ $41 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $93.85 · official $93.85 (match) · 605 history records