Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T09:55:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A0 0xa0f3…8faa crypto 1420 markets active 2h ago coverage 88d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 88d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$464 (-4%) realized −$473 · open +$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate69%979W / 437L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day24.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$57now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$21
7 days−$195
14 days−$179
30 days−$148
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 52% −$62
weather 42% −$505
other 5% +$111
world 1% −$45
sports 0% −$28
politics 0% −$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-12.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 198 -8.5% -17.2% 70% 38% -14.6%
≤30d 264 -5.5% -14.5% 72% 41% -12.3%
≤90d 1416 -3.5% -12.7% 69% 49% -13.9%
all 1416 -3.5% -12.7% 69% 49% -13.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.7% 49% -13.9%
10% ← realistic here -21.0% 20% -22.2%
15% -28.7% 11% -29.7%
20% -35.7% 7% -36.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$4 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

88d coverage
Net worth$57
Realized−$473
Unrealized+$9
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses979 / 437
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions4
Markets (closed)1416 / 1420
History coverage88d ⚠
Avg bet$8
Trades / day24.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 1416 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 26? Yes 68¢ 100¢ $15 $22 +$7 (+47%)
Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (HIGH) $1,350 Week of June 22 2026? No 89¢ 97¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+9%)
Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (HIGH) $1,290 Week of June 22 2026? No 71¢ 94¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+32%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 26? Yes 39¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 26? Jun 26 $30 +$2 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 26? Jun 26 $30 $0 +1%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $5 +$17 +325%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 26 $5 +$16 +309%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 25? Jun 25 $10 +$3 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 25 $3 +$4 +114%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $20 +$70 +344%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $80 +$3 +3%
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 25 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? Jun 25 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 24 $80 +$4 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 24 $10 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 24 $10 +$3 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 24 $10 +$4 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 24 $3 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 24 $3 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 24 $3 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 24 $6 +$2 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 24 $36 +$4 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 24 $9 +$2 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 24 $3 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 24 $3 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 24 $3 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 24 $3 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 24 $3 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 24 $10 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 24 $3 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 24 $3 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 24 $3 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 24 $3 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 24 $3 +$2 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 24 $140 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 24 $60 +$6 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 24 $10 +$11 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 24 $50 +$5 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 24 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 24 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 24 $63 −$63 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 26? SELL No 100¢ $33 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 26? BUY Yes 88¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 26? SELL No 100¢ $30 3h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 26? BUY Yes 61¢ $10 5h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 26? BUY Yes 36¢ $1 5h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 26? BUY No 93¢ $20 5h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 26? BUY Yes 41¢ $2 5h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 26? BUY No 99¢ $30 5h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 26? BUY No 90¢ $10 5h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 6h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 44¢ $10 6h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 6h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 9h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 9h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 9h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 9h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 9h
Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (HIGH) $1,290 Week of June 22 20 BUY No 71¢ $10 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $3 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $3 26h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 25? BUY Yes 74¢ $10 29h
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 31h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 97¢ $80 31h
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 31h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 31h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 32h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 49¢ $10 32h
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 32h
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 34h
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 34h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $57.06 · official $57.06 (match) · 3500 history records