Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T12:06:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
A0 0xa0f2…9c45 crypto 15 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$161 (+29%) realized +$161 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +36% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +14% what you keep after slip
Net edge+14%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate67%10W / 5L
Drawdown13%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day13.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% +$238
sports 5% −$28
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)+23.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +36.0% +23.1% 67% 60% +24.8%
≤30d 15 +36.0% +23.1% 67% 60% +24.8%
≤90d 15 +36.0% +23.1% 67% 60% +24.8%
all 15 +36.0% +23.1% 67% 60% +24.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +23.1% 60% +24.8%
10% +11.3% 60% +12.8%
15% +0.5% 60% +1.9%
20% -9.3% 60% -8.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 36% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +38% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +36% · $-wt +38% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late +56% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$15 · ×1.88 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.77 per $1 lost it wins $3.77
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$161
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses10 / 5
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)15 / 15
History coverage1d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day13.7
Drawdown13%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 15 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 18 $52 +$43 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 18 $31 +$22 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 18 $62 −$5 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 18 $52 +$59 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 18 $82 −$18 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 18 $31 +$22 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 18 $62 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 18 $26 +$36 +136%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 18 $26 +$32 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 18 $26 +$19 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 18 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$32 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$18 +70%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $13 −$13 -98%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $15 −$15 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 30 history records