Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T22:25:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
A0 0xa0f0…8266 other 158 markets active 1h ago coverage 567d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$5,142 (+41%) realized +$5,142 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate78%116W / 32L
Drawdown8%max
Avg bet$79per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$13now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 56% +$5,156
politics 42% −$8
other 1% −$8
tech 0% +$1
world 0% −$1
culture 0% −$1
crypto 0% +$1
economics 0% $0
weather 0% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-6.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 12 -8.1% -16.8% 58% 0% -14.3%
≤90d 43 -2.6% -11.9% 63% 2% +52.7%
all 148 +3.1% -6.8% 78% 16% +27.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.8% 16% +27.8%
10% -15.7% 9% +15.6%
15% -23.8% 7% +4.4%
20% -31.3% 5% -5.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 80% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +69% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
79% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +41% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$48 vs −$14 · ×3.32 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×12.83 per $1 lost it wins $12.83
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

567d coverage
Net worth$13
Realized+$5,142
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses116 / 32
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions10
Markets (closed)148 / 158
History coverage567d
Avg bet$79
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown8%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 148 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? No 96¢ 96¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by June 30, 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? No 98¢ 98¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will OpenAI have the third highest private market valuation on June 30? Yes 99¢ 98¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $250 by end of June? No 100¢ 100¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? No 92¢ 92¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Abiy Ahmed be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? Yes 97¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Carlos Álvarez win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 08 $27 −$1 -4%
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman? Jun 06 $1 $0 -6%
Xi Jinping out before 2027? Jun 06 $1 $0 -1%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 06 $1 $0 -0%
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (HIGH) $800 in May? Jun 06 $1 $0 +0%
Epstein suicide note released by May 31? Jun 06 $1 $0 +7%
Over $40M committed to the Printr public sale? Jun 06 $1 $0 +1%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by May 31? Jun 06 $1 $0 +4%
Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by May 31, 2026? Jun 06 $1 $0 +1%
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31? Jun 06 $1 $0 +1%
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $285 in May? Jun 06 $2 $0 +0%
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026? May 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 14 $16 −$1 -4%
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026? May 13 $1 $0 -11%
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 La Liga seaso May 13 $1 $0 -24%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? May 13 $1 $0 -3%
Will United Russia (ER) win the most seats in the next Russian parliam May 13 $1 $0 -0%
GTA VI released before June 2026? May 13 $1 $0 +3%
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? May 13 $1 $0 +1%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? May 13 $8 $0 -1%
USD.AI FDV above $100M one day after launch? May 05 $1 $0 +3%
Will there be fewer than 5 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worl May 05 $1 $0 +1%
Will Wolves be relegated from the English Premier League after the 202 May 05 $1 $0 +1%
Will Lê Minh Hưng be the next Prime Minister of Vietnam? May 05 $1 $0 +2%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 05 $1 $0 +5%
Will annual inflation increase by ≥2.8% in March? May 05 $1 $0 +1%
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 A May 05 $1 $0 +4%
Will Min Woo Lee finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 Texas Children's Hou Apr 04 $1 $0 +1%
Minneapolis Border Patrol shooter charged? Apr 04 $1 $0 +1%
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? Apr 04 $1 $0 +2%
Will "Gaslit By My Husband: The Morgan Metzer Story" be the top US Net Apr 04 $1 $0 +1%
Will Google have the third-best AI model at the end of March 2026? Apr 04 $2 $0 +2%
Senators vs. Lightning Mar 29 $1,435 +$1,083 +75%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by February 28, 2026? Mar 28 $1 $0 +9%
Will GTA 6 cost $100+? Mar 28 $1 $0 +1%
Will "How to Make a Killing" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 2 Mar 28 $1 $0 +2%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Mar 28 $1 $0 +6%
Will Rob Jetten become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands? Mar 28 $1 $0 +9%
Will Strasbourg win the 2025–26 French Ligue 1? Mar 23 $3 $0 +0%
Will Utah State win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 21 $7 $0 +0%
Will TCU win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 21 $1 $0 -4%
Will Brest win the 2025–26 French Ligue 1? Mar 21 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Texas win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 21 $9 $0 -1%
Jazz vs. Grizzlies Feb 21 $2,570 +$2,019 +79%
Will Sanae Takaichi be the Prime Minister of Japan as a result of the Feb 20 $1 $0 +3%
Grok 4.20 released by April 20? Feb 20 $1 $0 +4%
Will António José Seguro win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? Feb 09 $1 $0 +1%
Golden Knights vs. Ducks Feb 02 $2,566 +$2,465 +96%
Israel nuclear weapon use against Iran by January 31? Feb 01 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on January 25? Feb 01 $1 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 98¢ $1 1h
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $1 1h
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $250 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $1 1h
Will OpenAI have the third highest private market valuation on June 30 BUY Yes 99¢ $1 1h
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $1 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $1 1h
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $1 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1 1h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $1 1h
Will Abiy Ahmed be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? BUY Yes 97¢ $1 1h
Will Carlos Álvarez win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes $6 8d
Will Carlos Álvarez win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes $7 8d
Will Carlos Álvarez win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes $13 8d
Will Carlos Álvarez win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes $6 9d
Will Carlos Álvarez win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes $7 9d
Will Carlos Álvarez win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes $14 10d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $250 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $1 10d
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman? SELL No 94¢ $1 10d
Xi Jinping out before 2027? SELL No 93¢ $1 10d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 99¢ $1 10d
Epstein suicide note released by May 31? BUY No 93¢ $1 28d
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (HIGH) $800 in May? BUY No 100¢ $1 28d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by May 31? BUY No 96¢ $1 28d
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $1 28d
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $285 in May? BUY No 100¢ $2 28d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $250 by end of June? BUY No 99¢ $1 28d
Over $40M committed to the Printr public sale? BUY No 99¢ $1 28d
Xi Jinping out before 2027? BUY No 93¢ $1 28d
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31? BUY No 99¢ $1 28d
Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by May 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $1 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12.99 · official $12.99 (match) · 340 history records