Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T17:42:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A0 0xa0e7…9461 crypto 121 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (1421 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$201 · open −$201
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate49%56W / 59L
Whale WR53%big bets
Drawdown77%max
Avg bet$165per market
Trades / day1421.0pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$1,518now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$535
other 0% +$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (1421 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-8.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 115 +1.6% -8.1% 49% 35% -5.8%
≤30d 115 +1.6% -8.1% 49% 35% -5.8%
≤90d 115 +1.6% -8.1% 49% 35% -5.8%
all 115 +1.6% -8.1% 49% 35% -5.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1421.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.1% 35% -5.8%
10% ← realistic here -16.9% 23% -14.8%
15% -24.9% 19% -23.1%
20% -32.3% 14% -30.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 53% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +3% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
11.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$52 vs −$37 · ×1.42 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.35 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$1,518
Realized+$201
Unrealized−$201
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses56 / 59
Whale WR (big bets)53%
Open positions6
Markets (closed)115 / 121
History coverage1d
Avg bet$165
Trades / day1421.0
Drawdown77%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 115 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1PM ET Up 73¢ 92¢ $756 $949 +$193 (+26%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Up 36¢ 57¢ $140 $221 +$81 (+58%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Up 62¢ 82¢ $78 $103 +$25 (+33%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Down 48¢ 43¢ $89 $80 −$9 (-10%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Up 54¢ 74¢ $36 $49 +$14 (+38%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Down 19¢ 18¢ $45 $41 −$4 (-10%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1PM ET Down 49¢ 8¢ $220 $38 −$181 (-83%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 1PM ET Up 88¢ 94¢ $22 $24 +$2 (+7%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 1PM ET Down 20¢ 6¢ $30 $8 −$21 (-72%)
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Up 45¢ 78¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+74%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 25 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 25 $574 +$156 +27%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 25 $17 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 25 $306 +$144 +47%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 25 $551 +$369 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 25 $611 −$211 -34%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 25 $3 +$3 +117%
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 25 $9 −$9 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 25 $36 −$23 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 25 $204 −$36 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 25 $519 +$63 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 25 $182 +$37 +20%
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 25 $27 +$3 +10%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 25 $586 +$121 +21%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 25 $261 +$76 +29%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 25 $8 +$1 +14%
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 25 $0 $0 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 25 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 25 $144 +$16 +11%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 25 $24 −$24 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 25 $30 $0 -0%
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 25 $38 +$7 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 25 $708 +$55 +8%
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 25 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 25 $702 −$15 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 25 $569 +$66 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 25 $263 −$58 -22%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 25 $8 +$3 +41%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 25 $71 $0 -0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 12PM ET Jun 25 $222 +$173 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12PM ET Jun 25 $744 −$13 -2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 25 $76 −$4 -5%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 25, 12PM ET Jun 25 $3 +$12 +425%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 25 $28 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 25 $492 +$211 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 25 $333 −$224 -67%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 25 $54 −$6 -10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 25 $85 +$4 +5%
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 25 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 25 $333 −$73 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 25 $375 −$40 -10%
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 25 $2 +$4 +163%
BNB Up or Down - June 25, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 25 $6 +$9 +144%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 25 $113 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 25 $269 −$53 -20%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 25 $17 −$2 -13%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 25 $20 −$3 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 25 $288 −$190 -66%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 25 $197 +$74 +37%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 1PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $1 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $6 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $4 0m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $8 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $2 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $4 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $7 2m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $0 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $6 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $6 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $3 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $49 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $0 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $0 3m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $15 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $0 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $6 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $3 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $1 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $1 4m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $6 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $0 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $4 4m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $1 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $3 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $3 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $41 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $42 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $11 5m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $40 5m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,517.96 · official $1,518.00 (match) · 1512 history records