Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T12:48:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A0 0xa0e6…af58 other 26 markets active 1h ago coverage 450d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$4 (-1%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate48%12W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% +$1
world 33% −$2
tech 11% $0
crypto 4% $0
economics 4% $0
politics 3% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 6 -2.0% -11.4% 0% 0% -11.0%
≤90d 6 -2.0% -11.4% 0% 0% -11.0%
all 25 -1.7% -11.1% 48% 0% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.1% 0% -10.5%
10% -19.6% 0% -19.0%
15% -27.4% 0% -26.8%
20% -34.5% 0% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 55% · top 2 70% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.21 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.36 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

450d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses12 / 13
Open positions1
Markets (closed)25 / 26
History coverage450d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 25 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Yes 47¢ 52¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 18 $43 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $4 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 26 $29 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 26 $14 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 25 $45 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 24 $21 −$3 -12%
Will Benfica win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 13 $1 $0 +2%
Will Emmanuel Macron be the first leader out in 2025? Dec 13 $14 $0 +0%
Will Jeannette Jara win the Chilean presidential election? Jul 01 $13 −$2 -18%
Will Russia capture Pokrovsk by June 30? Jun 07 $12 $0 +1%
Will Nicolás Maduro be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 07 $1 $0 -30%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 04 $15 $0 -2%
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps decrease at the June meeting? Jun 04 $15 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft buy TikTok? Jun 04 $14 $0 +0%
No change in Fed interest rates after June 2025 meeting? Jun 03 $14 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90k in May? Jun 02 $2 $0 +3%
Will Ethereum dip to $1200 in May? Jun 02 $15 $0 +2%
ChatGPT #1 app May 9? May 08 $14 $0 +1%
Will George Russell be the 2025 Drivers Champion? May 08 $14 $0 +0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2025? May 07 $14 $0 +0%
Will Tim Stokely buy TikTok before July? May 07 $13 $0 -0%
Will Aaron Rodgers sign with the Los Angeles Rams? May 07 $1 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Lightning win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 07 $15 +$1 +8%
Will egg prices be between $5.25 and $5.50 in March? Mar 29 $5 $0 +4%
Will Dillon Danis win the match? Mar 28 $14 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 84¢ $43 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 84¢ $43 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes $4 17h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes $2 19h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes $2 19h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 47¢ $0 21d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 92¢ $29 22d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 92¢ $29 22d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 31¢ $14 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 31¢ $10 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 31¢ $4 23d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes $3 23d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes $3 23d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 98¢ $42 24d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 98¢ $42 24d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 46¢ $20 24d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 47¢ $21 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 36¢ $19 25d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 41¢ $21 25d
Will Jeannette Jara win the Chilean presidential election? SELL No 80¢ $10 352d
Will Benfica win the FIFA Club World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $1 356d
Will Jeannette Jara win the Chilean presidential election? BUY No 97¢ $13 375d
Will Russia capture Pokrovsk by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $12 375d
Will Nicolás Maduro be the first leader out in 2025? SELL Yes $1 376d
Will Nicolás Maduro be the first leader out in 2025? SELL Yes $0 376d
Will Russia capture Pokrovsk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $12 377d
Will Emmanuel Macron be the first leader out in 2025? SELL No 99¢ $12 378d
Will Emmanuel Macron be the first leader out in 2025? BUY No 99¢ $14 378d
Will Nicolás Maduro be the first leader out in 2025? BUY Yes $1 378d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the first leader out in 2025? SELL No 92¢ $15 378d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.08 · official $0.00 (match) · 71 history records