Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T14:02:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A0 0xa0e6…7ed2 crypto 28 markets active 2h ago coverage 180d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! loses its big bets
Total PnL −$26 (-0%) realized −$26 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate58%15W / 11L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,009per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$91now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 49% −$14
other 21% −$4
tech 13% −$4
economics 9% −$4
sports 4% −$1
crypto 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 2 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 3 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 26 +0.0% -9.5% 58% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,228) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$3 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.05 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

180d coverage
Net worth$91
Realized−$26
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses15 / 11
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)26 / 28
History coverage180d
Avg bet$1,009
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will XRP reach $2.00 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $58 $58 −$0 (-0%)
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $33 $33 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? Jun 25 $51 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.20 in May? Jun 25 $67 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.20 in March? May 21 $48 $0 +0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m Mar 27 $29 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on March 13? Mar 27 $88 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.80 on February 9? Mar 03 $31 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Mar 03 $34 $0 -1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 1? Mar 03 $63 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Mar 03 $91 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Feb 09 $1,267 −$2 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on January 27? Feb 09 $70 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Jan 16 $2,500 −$3 -0%
Will Karen Khachanov win the 2026 Australian Open? Jan 16 $4,838 −$5 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 16 $4,850 −$5 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on January 13? Jan 16 $30 $0 +0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 05 $4,508 −$5 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 05 $4,510 −$5 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on December 31? Jan 05 $30 $0 +0%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? Jan 05 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on January 1? Jan 05 $35 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on December 30? Dec 31 $50 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on December 29? Dec 29 $56 $0 +0%
Will the Utah Jazz win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 28 $1,218 −$1 -0%
Will Trump nominate Lorie K. Logan as the next Fed chair? Dec 28 $1,228 −$1 -0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on December 31? Dec 27 $1,221 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 27 $1,220 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will XRP reach $2.00 in June? BUY No 100¢ $58 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $51 35d
Will XRP dip to $0.20 in May? BUY No 100¢ $67 42d
Will XRP reach $3.20 in March? BUY No 100¢ $48 90d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on March 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $88 104d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 114d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $33 114d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 114d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $90 114d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 1? BUY No 100¢ $63 116d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m BUY No 100¢ $29 131d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $33 131d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.80 on February 9? BUY No 100¢ $31 136d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on January 27? BUY Yes 100¢ $35 149d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on January 27? BUY Yes 100¢ $35 149d
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? SELL No 100¢ $2,497 160d
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? BUY No 100¢ $2,500 160d
Will Karen Khachanov win the 2026 Australian Open? SELL No 100¢ $4,833 160d
Will Karen Khachanov win the 2026 Australian Open? BUY No 100¢ $4,838 160d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $4,845 160d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $4,850 160d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on January 13? BUY No 100¢ $30 163d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? BUY No 100¢ $35 165d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 100¢ $4,503 171d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 100¢ $4,508 171d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $4,505 171d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 100¢ $4,510 171d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on January 1? BUY Yes 100¢ $35 175d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on December 31? BUY No 100¢ $30 176d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on December 30? BUY Yes 100¢ $50 177d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $90.92 · official $90.92 (match) · 195 history records