Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T17:35:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

A0 0xa0e4…2e5b sports 21 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample

! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$258 (+6%) realized +$333 · open −$75

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +36% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +18% what you keep after slip

Net edge+18%after slip

Net WR82%break-even

Win rate82%14W / 3L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$190per market

Trades / day5.3pace

Fees−$24est.

Kalshi-fit67%portable

Net worth$195now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +82%

net ROI/market (all)+23.2%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	17	+36.2%	+23.2%	82%	82%	+1.8%
≤30d	17	+36.2%	+23.2%	82%	82%	+1.8%
≤90d	17	+36.2%	+23.2%	82%	82%	+1.8%
all	17	+36.2%	+23.2%	82%	82%	+1.8%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover5.3 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to15%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+23.2%	82%	+1.8%
10%	+11.4%	71%	-8.0%
15%	+0.7%	65%	-16.8%
20%	-9.2%	53%	-25.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 17% · top 2 29% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +36% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +6% → late +63% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$88 vs −$273 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×1.5 per $1 lost it wins $1.5

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage

Net worth$195

Realized+$333

Unrealized−$75

Win rate (resolved)82%

Wins / losses14 / 3

Est. fees paid−$24

Open positions2

Markets (closed)17 / 21

History coverage5d

Avg bet$190

Trades / day5.3

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 17 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5	Under	59¢	58¢	$150	$149	−$1 (-1%)
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5	Under	69¢	26¢	$120	$46	−$74 (-62%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$152	+$118	+78%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw?	Jun 21	$51	+$84	+165%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 21	$351	−$129	-37%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$202	+$106	+52%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score	Jun 20	$304	+$213	+70%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$101	+$71	+70%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5	Jun 20	$353	+$116	+33%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5	Jun 20	$41	+$32	+79%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$101	+$55	+54%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5	Jun 20	$202	+$137	+67%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 19	$202	+$126	+62%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5	Jun 18	$101	+$42	+42%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5	Jun 18	$91	−$90	-99%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 18	$252	+$95	+38%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$604	−$600	-99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$50	+$10	+20%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$102	+$22	+21%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	BUY	62¢	$152	1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5	BUY Under	69¢	$121	1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	BUY	61¢	$182	1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	59¢	$152	15h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21?	BUY	54¢	$122	15h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	BUY	56¢	$152	15h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw?	BUY Yes	37¢	$51	16h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20?	SELL Yes	56¢	$222	16h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	58¢	$101	24h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	87¢	$351	24h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	65¢	$202	33h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	58¢	$101	33h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	58¢	$203	33h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5	BUY Under	73¢	$151	37h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	55¢	$41	38h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5	BUY Under	76¢	$201	38h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	BUY	64¢	$101	2d
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	59¢	$202	2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	61¢	$202	2d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5	BUY Over	69¢	$91	3d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5	BUY Over	70¢	$101	3d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	72¢	$252	4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	77¢	$604	4d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	SELL Yes	86¢	$60	4d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	71¢	$50	4d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16?	SELL Yes	100¢	$124	4d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	82¢	$82	5d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	82¢	$20	5d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $194.82 · official $644.82 · 40 history records