Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:19:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
A0 0xa0e3…c139 crypto 38 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (80 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$169 (+13%) realized +$169 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate71%27W / 11L
Drawdown15%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day80.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$179
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (80 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)+2.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 +13.7% +2.9% 71% 55% +3.3%
≤30d 38 +13.7% +2.9% 71% 55% +3.3%
≤90d 38 +13.7% +2.9% 71% 55% +3.3%
all 38 +13.7% +2.9% 71% 55% +3.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover80.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +2.9% 55% +3.3%
10% ← realistic here -7.0% 34% -6.6%
15% -16.0% 24% -15.6%
20% -24.2% 18% -23.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +17% → late +10% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$9 · ×1.17 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.86 per $1 lost it wins $2.86
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$169
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses27 / 11
Open positions0
Markets (closed)38 / 38
History coverage1d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day80.0
Drawdown15%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 38 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 17 $50 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 17 $51 +$30 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$4 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $51 +$8 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 17 $51 +$8 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$21 +83%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$2 -16%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 17 $25 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +18%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$4 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$7 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$2 +7%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +18%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$5 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$2 +43%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 17 $25 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 17 $36 +$10 +28%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$16 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 17 $36 −$18 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 17 $55 −$4 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 17 $50 +$4 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 17 $30 +$7 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 17 $25 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$10 +196%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 17 $25 +$4 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$2 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 17 $11 +$32 +304%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 16 $127 +$33 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 16 $101 +$8 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 16 $112 +$16 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 16 $101 +$12 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 16 $61 +$19 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 16 $56 +$8 +15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET SELL Down 27¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET SELL Up 5¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $25 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $25 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $25 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $25 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET SELL Up 45¢ $6 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $26 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET SELL Up 6¢ $3 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $5 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $25 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET SELL Up 35¢ $6 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $5 4h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $5 4h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET SELL Down 43¢ $28 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $26 4h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $5 4h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET SELL Down 64¢ $7 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $5 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 104 history records