Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:54:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
A0 0xa0e1…ba6d sports 22 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$282 (+17%) realized +$282 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate45%10W / 12L
Drawdown14%max
Avg bet$74per market
Trades / day11.5pace
Fees−$24est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 64% +$413
other 35% −$6
crypto 1% −$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-5.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +4.3% -5.7% 45% 41% +12.5%
≤30d 22 +4.3% -5.7% 45% 41% +12.5%
≤90d 22 +4.3% -5.7% 45% 41% +12.5%
all 22 +4.3% -5.7% 45% 41% +12.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.7% 41% +12.5%
10% -14.7% 41% +1.7%
15% -22.9% 41% -8.1%
20% -30.5% 36% -17.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +24% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$50 vs −$9 · ×5.77 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.81 per $1 lost it wins $4.81
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$282
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses10 / 12
Est. fees paid−$24
Open positions0
Markets (closed)22 / 22
History coverage3d
Avg bet$74
Trades / day11.5
Drawdown14%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 22 Trades
no open positions (9 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $500 +$15 +3%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $507 −$4 -1%
Ghana vs. Panama: Draw at halftime? Jun 17 $203 +$105 +52%
England vs. Croatia: Draw at halftime? Jun 17 $101 +$119 +118%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $102 +$110 +108%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Draw at halftime? Jun 17 $51 +$88 +172%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Draw at halftime? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Iraq vs. Norway: Draw at halftime? Jun 16 $9 −$9 -98%
France vs. Senegal: Draw at halftime? Jun 16 $10 +$8 +79%
New Zealand leading at halftime? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -99%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 1 Uruguay? Jun 16 $5 +$11 +213%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Draw at halftime? Jun 15 $10 −$9 -93%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 0 Uruguay? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Egypt leading at halftime? Jun 15 $20 +$9 +46%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $30 −$29 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Draw at halftime? Jun 15 $20 −$8 -41%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$25 +242%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Draw at halftime? Jun 15 $5 +$5 +103%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $14 −$14 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 97¢ $500 57m
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? SELL Yes 57¢ $502 1h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 56¢ $507 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 82¢ $308 2h
Ghana vs. Panama: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 53¢ $203 2h
England vs. Croatia: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $220 4h
England vs. Croatia: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 45¢ $101 5h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $212 6h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 47¢ $102 7h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $139 7h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 36¢ $51 8h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 23h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 42¢ $10 25h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 26h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 26h
Iraq vs. Norway: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 32¢ $9 27h
France vs. Senegal: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 70¢ $18 30h
France vs. Senegal: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 38¢ $10 32h
New Zealand leading at halftime? BUY Yes 57¢ $5 2d
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 1 Uruguay? SELL Yes 99¢ $16 2d
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 1 Uruguay? BUY Yes 31¢ $5 2d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 10¢ $0 2d
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 0 Uruguay? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 2d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 2d
Egypt leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $29 2d
Egypt leading at halftime? BUY Yes 68¢ $20 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 33¢ $9 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 34¢ $20 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 27¢ $12 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 44¢ $20 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 39 history records