Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T00:06:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

A0 0xa0e1…b9b4 sports 7 markets active 2h ago coverage 34d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real

Total PnL −$446 (-12%) realized −$448 · open +$2

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +5% what you keep after slip

Net edge+5%after slip

Net WR60%break-even

Win rate60%3W / 2L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$518per market

Trades / day0.3pace

Fees−$36est.

Kalshi-fit86%portable

Net worth$1,493now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 34d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +60%

net ROI/market (all)+5.1%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	2	-17.7%	-25.5%	50%	50%	-43.0%
≤30d	3	+21.6%	+10.0%	67%	67%	-36.2%
≤90d	5	+16.1%	+5.1%	60%	60%	-29.3%
all	5	+16.1%	+5.1%	60%	60%	-29.3%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.3 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+5.1%	60%	-29.3%
10%	-5.0%	60%	-36.1%
15%	-14.2%	60%	-42.2%
20%	-22.6%	60%	-47.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 67% · top 2 84% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -22% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +16% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$209 vs −$543 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.58 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

34d coverage

Net worth$1,493

Realized−$448

Unrealized+$2

Win rate (resolved)60%

Wins / losses3 / 2

Est. fees paid−$36

Open positions2

Markets (closed)5 / 7

History coverage34d

Avg bet$518

Trades / day0.3

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 5 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	Yes	67¢	68¢	$991	$998	+$7 (+1%)
Tunisia vs. Japan: Tunisia O/U 0.5	Under	51¢	50¢	$500	$495	−$5 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo	Jun 20	$1,065	−$1,050	-99%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5	Jun 20	$650	+$420	+65%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Game 1 Winner	Jun 05	$100	+$100	+100%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Tundra Esports (BO1) - DreamLeague Group B	May 18	$204	+$106	+52%
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Tundra Esports (BO1) - DreamLeague Group B	May 18	$102	−$37	-36%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	67¢	$1,001	1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Tunisia O/U 0.5	BUY Under	51¢	$507	1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo	BUY Spirit	54¢	$1,065	4h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	60¢	$650	7h
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Game 1 Winner	BUY BetBoom Team	50¢	$87	15d
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Game 1 Winner	BUY BetBoom Team	50¢	$11	15d
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Game 1 Winner	BUY BetBoom Team	50¢	$2	15d
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Tundra Esports (BO1) - DreamLeague Group B	BUY Tundra Esports	65¢	$204	33d
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Tundra Esports (BO1) - DreamLeague Group B	SELL PlayTime	27¢	$65	33d
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Tundra Esports (BO1) - DreamLeague Group B	BUY PlayTime	41¢	$102	33d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,493.48 · official $1,493.48 (match) · 13 history records