Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T12:50:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
A0 0xa0e0…d9fd crypto 317 markets active 1h ago coverage 113d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$154 (-6%) realized −$154 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate50%158W / 158L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day6.7pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$20
7 days−$20
14 days−$20
30 days−$20
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$315
world 2% −$9
sports 0% $0
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-25.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -27.8% -34.7% 33% 33% -45.0%
≤30d 3 -27.8% -34.7% 33% 33% -45.0%
≤90d 3 -27.8% -34.7% 33% 33% -45.0%
all 316 -17.9% -25.8% 50% 36% -22.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.8% 36% -22.7%
10% -32.9% 27% -30.1%
15% -39.3% 20% -36.9%
20% -45.3% 12% -43.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -39% too few recent
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$5 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

113d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$154
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses158 / 158
Open positions1
Markets (closed)316 / 317
History coverage113d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day6.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 316 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-24%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 109 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 18 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $1 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 18 $25 +$5 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 13, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Mar 13 $18 +$8 +45%
XRP Up or Down - March 13, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Mar 13 $18 −$8 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Mar 13 $21 +$4 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 13, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Mar 13 $16 +$5 +34%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in March? Mar 13 $9 −$4 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Mar 13 $18 −$5 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Mar 07 $22 −$2 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Mar 07 $12 −$2 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Mar 07 $9 +$11 +126%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Mar 07 $14 −$12 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Mar 07 $20 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Mar 07 $11 +$5 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Mar 07 $30 −$7 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Mar 06 $12 +$4 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Mar 06 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Mar 06 $25 +$2 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 6, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Mar 06 $22 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Mar 05 $15 +$6 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Mar 05 $31 −$4 -14%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in March? Mar 05 $42 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Mar 05 $50 −$44 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Mar 05 $40 +$19 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Mar 05 $66 −$62 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Mar 05 $40 +$34 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Mar 05 $46 −$43 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Mar 05 $25 +$20 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Mar 05 $5 −$3 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Mar 05 $5 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Mar 05 $8 −$4 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Mar 05 $2 +$2 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Mar 05 $5 +$4 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Mar 05 $2 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Mar 05 $13 −$12 -91%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 4, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Mar 04 $35 −$2 -6%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 4, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Mar 04 $15 −$2 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Mar 04 $26 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Mar 04 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Mar 04 $37 −$32 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Mar 04 $56 +$6 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Mar 04 $30 +$10 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Mar 04 $33 +$23 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Mar 04 $10 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Mar 04 $7 +$5 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Mar 04 $15 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Mar 04 $19 −$7 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Mar 04 $6 +$5 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Mar 04 $10 +$4 +44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $25 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $25 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - March 13, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET SELL Down 100¢ $25 97d
Ethereum Up or Down - March 13, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $3 97d
Ethereum Up or Down - March 13, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET SELL Up 21¢ $1 97d
Ethereum Up or Down - March 13, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $10 97d
Ethereum Up or Down - March 13, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 97d
Ethereum Up or Down - March 13, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 97d
XRP Up or Down - March 13, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $10 97d
XRP Up or Down - March 13, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET SELL Down 2¢ $0 97d
XRP Up or Down - March 13, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $15 97d
XRP Up or Down - March 13, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $3 97d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $25 97d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET SELL Up 4¢ $0 97d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $15 97d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $3 97d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $3 97d
Ethereum Up or Down - March 13, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $20 97d
Ethereum Up or Down - March 13, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET SELL Up 15¢ $1 97d
Ethereum Up or Down - March 13, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET SELL Down 42¢ $1 97d
Ethereum Up or Down - March 13, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $12 97d
Ethereum Up or Down - March 13, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 97d
Ethereum Up or Down - March 13, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $2 97d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in March? SELL Yes 32¢ $5 97d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $11 97d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $4 97d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET SELL Up 39¢ $4 97d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $9 97d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.76 · official $0.76 (match) · 922 history records