Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T03:53:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
A0 0xa0dc…586c sports 978 markets active 1h ago coverage 132d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$26,818 (-7%) realized −$26,152 · open −$666
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate39%384W / 593L
Whale WR42%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$419per market
Trades / day17.3pace
Fees−$3,543est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$1,884now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$961
7 days+$6
14 days−$505
30 days+$5,117
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 65% −$21,610
other 30% −$7,965
politics 3% −$2,470
finance 2% +$1,457
world 0% −$489
crypto 0% +$636
economics 0% −$150
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-14.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 -2.3% -11.6% 45% 45% -9.5%
≤30d 145 +7.3% -2.9% 48% 47% -3.2%
≤90d 719 -3.3% -12.5% 39% 38% -14.5%
all 977 -5.6% -14.6% 39% 37% -16.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.6% 37% -16.2%
10% -22.8% 35% -24.2%
15% -30.2% 33% -31.5%
20% -37.1% 30% -38.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 42% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -7% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$316 vs −$255 · ×1.24 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

132d coverage
Net worth$1,884
Realized−$26,152
Unrealized−$666
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses384 / 593
Whale WR (big bets)42%
Est. fees paid−$3,543
Open positions1
Markets (closed)977 / 978
History coverage132d
Avg bet$419
Trades / day17.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 977 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $2,550 $1,884 −$666 (-26%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $894 +$166 +19%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $600 +$170 +28%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 19 $293 −$293 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 19 $163 −$163 -100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 19 $103 −$103 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 19 $456 −$456 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 19 $774 −$774 -100%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $26 −$26 -98%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $598 +$439 +73%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $387 −$338 -88%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $153 +$168 +109%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $396 −$200 -51%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $385 −$27 -7%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $632 +$561 +89%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $112 −$84 -75%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $396 −$259 -65%
Will Norway win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $1,690 −$408 -24%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $572 +$228 +40%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $489 −$354 -72%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $601 +$341 +57%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 15 $406 −$36 -9%
Spread: Atlanta Dream (-6.5) Jun 15 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 15 $234 −$234 -100%
Will Málaga CF win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $266 −$266 -100%
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 27.5 Jun 15 $496 −$496 -100%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $557 −$557 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $360 +$636 +177%
Will Málaga CF vs. UD Almería end in a draw? Jun 14 $132 +$177 +134%
Atlanta Dream vs. Toronto Tempo Jun 14 $183 −$120 -65%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $386 +$223 +58%
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur Jun 14 $397 +$582 +147%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $91 +$150 +165%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $240 +$215 +90%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $482 −$171 -36%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $386 +$352 +91%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $872 +$445 +51%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Seattle Storm: O/U 158.5 Jun 13 $90 +$62 +68%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $437 +$478 +109%
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 27.5 Jun 11 $394 −$394 -100%
Will China PR win on 2026-06-09? Jun 11 $600 −$600 -100%
PortlandFire vs. Los Angeles Sparks Jun 09 $241 −$241 -100%
Will FC Machida Zelvia win on 2026-06-06? Jun 09 $395 −$395 -100%
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-4.5) Jun 09 $548 −$548 -100%
Spread: Toronto Tempo (-3.5) Jun 09 $152 −$152 -100%
Connecticut Sun vs. Chicago Sky: O/U 163.5 Jun 09 $183 −$183 -100%
Dallas Wings vs. Los Angeles Sparks Jun 09 $254 −$254 -100%
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-16.5) Jun 09 $184 +$140 +76%
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 27.5 Jun 09 $794 +$597 +75%
Morocco vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 07 $168 +$123 +73%
Zweigen Kanazawa vs. Thespa Gunma: O/U 1.5 Jun 07 $362 +$91 +25%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 81¢ $470 1h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $26 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $284 3h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $873 4h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Over 76¢ $164 4h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 54¢ $598 6h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 47¢ $590 6h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 47¢ $610 7h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL No 5¢ $49 7h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 38¢ $387 9h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 8¢ $21 9h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $321 10h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $153 10h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 72¢ $769 10h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $579 15h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 16¢ $103 30h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 22¢ $131 31h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 52¢ $359 31h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 51¢ $64 31h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 53¢ $396 31h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 54¢ $385 32h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) SELL DR Congo 100¢ $971 32h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 11¢ $28 32h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $112 33h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) SELL DR Congo 69¢ $221 33h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 48¢ $632 40h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 17¢ $138 2d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $396 2d
Will Norway win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 20¢ $1,282 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 55¢ $774 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,884.17 · official $1,884.17 (match) · 2744 history records