Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:55:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
A0 0xa0d3…658c world 95 markets active 1h ago coverage 464d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$12 (+0%) realized +$12 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate34%32W / 62L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$111per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$153now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$2
14 days+$9
30 days−$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 81% +$8
other 17% $0
politics 1% $0
sports 0% +$2
crypto 0% −$2
economics 0% $0
culture 0% +$2
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +0.6% -9.0% 50% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 31 -1.5% -10.8% 26% 6% -9.7%
≤90d 38 -1.3% -10.7% 32% 5% -9.4%
all 94 +0.0% -9.5% 34% 5% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 5% -9.4%
10% -18.2% 3% -18.1%
15% -26.1% 2% -26.0%
20% -33.3% 2% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 63% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
84% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.33 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.15 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

464d coverage
Net worth$153
Realized+$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses32 / 62
Open positions1
Markets (closed)94 / 95
History coverage464d
Avg bet$111
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 94 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? No 90¢ 90¢ $153 $153 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 16 $92 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $247 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 15 $55 +$2 +4%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $19 $0 +2%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $136 +$1 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 13 $136 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $288 +$1 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $153 −$2 -2%
Iran leadership change by December 31? Jun 11 $106 −$4 -3%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $23 −$2 -9%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 09 $767 +$2 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 09 $98 +$11 +11%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 08 $14 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $157 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $2 $0 -10%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 06 $144 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $314 +$1 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 03 $143 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 02 $373 −$4 -1%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 31 $162 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 31 $23 −$4 -19%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 30 $290 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 29 $242 +$37 +15%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 28 $1,449 −$3 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 28 $263 −$6 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 26 $156 −$8 -5%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $289 −$23 -8%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? May 25 $53 −$3 -5%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 25 $17 −$1 -8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 24 $122 −$7 -6%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 23 $161 $0 +0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 14 $67 +$4 +6%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 14 $74 $0 -0%
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? May 13 $52 −$6 -12%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 13 $454 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 12 $1,151 +$19 +2%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 12 $63 $0 +0%
US x Iran peace deal before Trump visits China? May 11 $1,547 +$5 +0%
Will Trump meet with Yoon Suk Yeol in 2025? Jul 09 $3 $0 +4%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Jul 09 $14 $0 +1%
Will Xi Jinping be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 09 $24 $0 +0%
Will Bertie Ahern win the Irish Presidential Election? Jul 09 $12 $0 +0%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 Jul 09 $10 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Jul 08 $2 $0 +0%
Will Cristian Popescu Piedone be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jul 08 $14 $0 +0%
Will Ben Shelton win Wimbledon 2025? Jul 08 $1 $0 +30%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Jul 08 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Jul 08 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 08 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 07 $12 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $153 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $92 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $33 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $59 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $153 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $57 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $96 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 74¢ $58 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 71¢ $55 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes $19 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes $19 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $114 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $22 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $136 4d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $136 4d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $136 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $150 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $150 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 61¢ $150 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 62¢ $153 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $139 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $138 5d
Iran leadership change by December 31? SELL Yes 29¢ $102 7d
Iran leadership change by December 31? BUY Yes 30¢ $41 7d
Iran leadership change by December 31? BUY Yes 30¢ $64 7d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? SELL Yes $2 7d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? SELL Yes $3 7d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? SELL Yes $3 7d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? SELL Yes $1 7d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? SELL Yes $3 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $152.83 · official $152.75 (match) · 365 history records