Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:17:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A0 0xa0cd…85f2 tech 43 markets active 1h ago coverage 223d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$112 (-1%) realized −$112 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate23%10W / 33L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$321per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$3
14 days−$3
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 37% −$37
other 27% −$6
economics 15% −$4
sports 11% −$90
tech 4% +$7
finance 4% +$1
world 2% $0
crypto 1% −$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.6% -10.1% 0% 0% -10.1%
≤30d 5 +0.1% -9.4% 20% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 24 -0.8% -10.3% 17% 0% -10.4%
all 43 -2.4% -11.7% 23% 0% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.7% 0% -10.5%
10% -20.2% 0% -19.1%
15% -27.9% 0% -26.9%
20% -35.0% 0% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$510) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -4% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$5 · ×0.2 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.06 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

223d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$112
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses10 / 33
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions0
Markets (closed)43 / 43
History coverage223d
Avg bet$321
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 43 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Jun 17 $109 $0 -0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Jun 16 $106 −$2 -2%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $108 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $110 −$1 -1%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 Jun 01 $108 +$3 +3%
GTA VI released before June 2026? May 11 $1,009 −$2 -0%
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? May 11 $962 −$4 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 11 $960 −$2 -0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect May 11 $992 −$28 -3%
Will the Buffalo Sabres win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? May 11 $1,000 −$6 -1%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 11 $1,001 −$2 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $1,002 −$2 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $1,001 −$1 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Apr 30 $108 +$1 +0%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? Apr 08 $510 −$84 -16%
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 08 $1,018 −$1 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 08 $521 −$1 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 08 $497 −$2 -0%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Apr 08 $26 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Apr 08 $25 $0 +1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? Apr 08 $497 +$1 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Apr 07 $498 −$1 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Apr 07 $498 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 07 $499 −$1 -0%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 16 $25 $0 -0%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? Mar 16 $25 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Mar 16 $26 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in March? Mar 16 $26 $0 -0%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Mar 16 $26 $0 -0%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Mar 01 $26 $0 +0%
Will Claude 5 be released on February 19, 2026? Feb 18 $26 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Feb 18 $50 +$1 +2%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 12, 2026 (ET)? Feb 13 $1 $0 -0%
Will Claude 5 be released on February 13, 2026? Feb 13 $1 $0 -0%
US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026? Feb 13 $1 $0 -1%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Feb 12 $25 $0 -0%
Will GTA 6 cost $100+? Feb 12 $51 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Feb 12 $25 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,300 on November 6? Feb 12 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on Jan 31 $24 +$1 +4%
Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31? Jan 17 $194 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Janua Jan 17 $22 +$2 +9%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Dec 23 $22 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina SELL No 99¢ $109 1h
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina BUY No 99¢ $109 2h
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 SELL No 98¢ $105 26h
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 BUY No 99¢ $106 42h
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $108 42h
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $108 43h
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $110 43h
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $110 43h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 BUY Yes 97¢ $108 28d
GTA VI released before June 2026? SELL No 99¢ $956 36d
GTA VI released before June 2026? BUY No 99¢ $958 36d
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 96¢ $958 36d
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 96¢ $962 36d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $958 36d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $960 36d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL No 67¢ $965 36d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY No 67¢ $992 36d
Will the Buffalo Sabres win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL No 96¢ $994 36d
Will the Buffalo Sabres win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY No 96¢ $1,000 36d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $998 36d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,001 36d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $999 36d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $1,002 36d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $1,000 36d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $1,001 36d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April SELL Yes 100¢ $108 47d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April BUY Yes 99¢ $108 60d
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? SELL Yes 43¢ $426 69d
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? BUY Yes 51¢ $510 69d
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $520 70d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 116 history records