Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T16:17:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A0 0xa0cb…419f sports 14 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$5 (-4%) realized −$8 · open +$3
Gross ROI / mkt -58% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -63% what you keep after slip
Net edge-63%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate20%1W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day7.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$128now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 58% −$2
other 40% $0
crypto 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-61.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -57.9% -61.9% 20% 20% -72.6%
≤30d 5 -57.9% -61.9% 20% 20% -72.6%
≤90d 5 -57.9% -61.9% 20% 20% -72.6%
all 5 -57.9% -61.9% 20% 20% -72.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -61.9% 20% -72.6%
10% -65.5% 0% -75.3%
15% -68.9% 0% -77.6%
20% -71.9% 0% -79.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -70% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -58% · $-wt -70% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.11 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.04 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$128
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses1 / 4
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions8
Markets (closed)5 / 14
History coverage2d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day7.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Donyell Malen: 1+ goals No 67¢ 68¢ $34 $34 +$0 (+1%)
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Yes 61¢ 62¢ $30 $31 +$0 (+1%)
Will the announcers say "Captain" during the Netherlands vs Sweden FIFA World Cup Match? Yes 92¢ 90¢ $28 $27 −$1 (-2%)
Will the announcers say "Crossbar" during the Netherlands vs Sweden FIFA World Cup Match? Yes 36¢ 48¢ $10 $14 +$4 (+35%)
Cody Gakpo: 1+ goals Yes 33¢ 34¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Alexander Isak: 1+ goals Yes 29¢ 27¢ $9 $8 −$1 (-7%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Sweden? Yes $4 $3 −$0 (-7%)
Will the announcers say "Handball" during the Netherlands vs Sweden FIFA World Cup Match? Yes 55¢ 50¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the announcers say "Captain" during the USA vs Australia FIFA Wor Jun 20 $2 $0 +11%
Tomáš Souček: 1+ goals Jun 18 $1 $0 +0%
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $2 −$2 -98%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Draw at halftime? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -98%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Team to Take First Corner Jun 18 $1 −$1 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $128.10 · official $128.10 (match) · 17 history records