Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T10:58:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A0 0xa0c9…5ec2 world 51 markets active 2h ago coverage 278d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate30%15W / 35L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$4
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 43% −$4
politics 16% $0
crypto 14% $0
other 13% +$1
sports 10% +$1
culture 4% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 14 -0.5% -10.0% 21% 0% -10.4%
≤90d 14 -0.5% -10.0% 21% 0% -10.4%
all 50 +0.5% -9.1% 30% 6% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.1% 6% -9.7%
10% -17.8% 0% -18.4%
15% -25.7% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.0% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 58% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

278d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses15 / 35
Open positions1
Markets (closed)50 / 51
History coverage278d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 50 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? No 93¢ 94¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 22 $30 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $33 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 15 $31 −$1 -4%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $40 −$2 -5%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $27 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $2 $0 +7%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $10 $0 -4%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $33 $0 -1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 13 $16 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $54 +$1 +1%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 10 $33 $0 -1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $67 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 09 $33 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 09 $28 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 16 $26 +$1 +4%
Will the Iranian regime fall in 2025? Oct 23 $7 $0 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 23 $7 $0 -2%
Will Ethereum dip to $3000 in October? Oct 14 $5 $0 -2%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 14 $3 $0 -3%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Oct 14 $6 +$1 +17%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 11 $6 $0 +0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 11 $12 $0 -0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Oct 11 $6 $0 +0%
Will Lilo & Stitch be the top grossing movie of 2025? Oct 11 $6 $0 -1%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 11 $1 $0 +11%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 10 $6 $0 +0%
Will Xi Jinping be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Oct 10 $35 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 09 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 09 $11 $0 -0%
Will LLA hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the Oct 08 $6 $0 +1%
Will Trump pardon Elizabeth Holmes in 2025? Oct 08 $6 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 08 $6 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Oct 07 $6 $0 +0%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Oct 07 $6 $0 +0%
Will It Was Just an Accident win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awar Oct 04 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 02 $6 $0 +0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 01 $2 $0 +12%
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025? Sep 29 $28 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Sep 28 $29 $0 +0%
Will People's Party for Freedom and Democracy win the most seats in th Sep 28 $58 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 28 $28 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31? Sep 25 $29 $0 +0%
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 25 $29 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 25 $29 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 24 $29 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Himself in 2025? Sep 23 $29 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $3000 in September? Sep 23 $29 $0 +0%
Will Vlad Gheorghe be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Sep 22 $22 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 22 $8 $0 -5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $122,000 and $124,000 on Septembe Sep 22 $29 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? BUY No 93¢ $30 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $30 12h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $30 13h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $33 7d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $33 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 51¢ $30 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 53¢ $31 7d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 77¢ $34 7d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $35 7d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 23¢ $4 8d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 8d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $27 8d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $27 8d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 8d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 26¢ $10 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 27¢ $2 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 27¢ $8 9d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 94¢ $26 9d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 94¢ $7 9d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 96¢ $33 9d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $16 10d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $1 10d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $15 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 47¢ $18 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 45¢ $18 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 48¢ $6 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 50¢ $30 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 50¢ $36 10d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL No 78¢ $16 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.92 · official $29.92 (match) · 148 history records