Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T09:46:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
A0 0xa0c9…e63e crypto 55 markets active 1d ago coverage 240d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$359 (+1%) realized +$360 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate100%53W / 0L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$454per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$1,010now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$152
7 days+$157
14 days+$160
30 days+$169
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 50% +$99
other 22% +$183
economics 8% +$26
world 7% +$16
politics 6% +$19
finance 6% +$8
tech 1% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +4.0% -5.9% 100% 20% -2.3%
≤30d 11 +2.5% -7.3% 100% 9% -5.4%
≤90d 19 +1.8% -7.9% 100% 5% -7.3%
all 53 +1.5% -8.2% 100% 4% -8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.2% 4% -8.2%
10% -17.0% 0% -17.0%
15% -25.0% 0% -25.0%
20% -32.3% 0% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 55% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$677) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

240d coverage
Net worth$1,010
Realized+$360
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses53 / 0
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)53 / 55
History coverage240d
Avg bet$454
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 53 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $733 $732 −$0 (-0%)
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $35 by end of June? No 99¢ 99¢ $278 $278 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $230 by end of June? Jun 19 $1,107 +$152 +14%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? Jun 18 $397 $0 +0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 17 $234 +$1 +0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,400 by end of June? Jun 17 $12 $0 +4%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? Jun 14 $211 +$4 +2%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? Jun 12 $232 +$2 +1%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 07 $129 $0 +0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,200 by end of June? Jun 05 $90 +$5 +6%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 in May? May 29 $326 +$1 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May? May 28 $206 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? May 26 $734 +$3 +0%
Bitcoin all time high by June 30, 2026? May 16 $207 +$4 +2%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of June? May 11 $528 +$1 +0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m May 06 $528 +$1 +0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Apr 25 $825 +$12 +1%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $125 by end of March? Mar 29 $474 $0 +0%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of March? Mar 29 $533 +$3 +0%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $40 by end of March? Mar 28 $288 +$1 +0%
Trump out as President by March 31? Mar 25 $1,612 +$19 +1%
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? Mar 22 $809 +$10 +1%
Will Solana dip to $40 February 23-March 1? Mar 01 $792 +$1 +0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,600 by end of February? Feb 28 $784 +$6 +1%
Will Gold (GC) settle over $7,000 on the final trading day of February Feb 28 $20 $0 +0%
Will Gold (GC) settle over $6,500 on the final trading day of February Feb 27 $770 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,900 on February 8? Feb 08 $779 +$5 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $86,000 and $88,000 on February 7 Feb 08 $778 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on February 6? Feb 07 $776 +$2 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in January? Jan 29 $771 +$6 +1%
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Jan 01 $301 +$7 +2%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$8B one day after launch? Dec 30 $211 +$13 +6%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 December 22-28? Dec 27 $235 +$3 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 23 $394 +$42 +11%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 22 $97 +$2 +3%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 14 $198 +$13 +6%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 05 $190 +$8 +4%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2025? Nov 16 $98 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2025? Nov 16 $193 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in November? Nov 15 $101 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,300 November 3-9? Nov 08 $678 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $122k November 3-9? Nov 05 $677 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $118,000 on November 6? Nov 04 $676 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $128,000 October 27-November 2? Nov 04 $98 +$2 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $112,000 on November 3? Nov 04 $182 +$2 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $100,000 October 27-November 2? Nov 04 $382 +$9 +2%
Will the price of XRP be above $2.10 on November 2? Nov 03 $182 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $140 on October 30? Nov 01 $182 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $104,000 on October 28? Oct 29 $662 +$1 +0%
Will Solana reach $220 October 20-26? Oct 27 $661 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,500 on October 27? Oct 26 $660 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $3,300 October 20-26? Oct 25 $141 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $733 32h
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $230 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $733 32h
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $230 by end of June? BUY No 99¢ $551 44h
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $230 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $160 44h
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $230 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $42 44h
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $230 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $42 44h
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $230 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $283 44h
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $230 by end of June? BUY No 70¢ $21 45h
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $230 by end of June? BUY No 70¢ $352 45h
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $397 45h
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $230 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $183 45h
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $35 by end of June? BUY No 99¢ $279 45h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet SELL Yes 100¢ $235 2d
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,400 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $12 2d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $212 5d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $3 5d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 100¢ $234 6d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? SELL No 100¢ $234 7d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? BUY No 99¢ $232 12d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $130 13d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,200 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $75 14d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,200 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $1 14d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,200 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $1 14d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,200 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $1 14d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,200 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $1 14d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,200 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $2 14d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,200 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $2 14d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,200 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $2 14d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,200 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $2 14d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,200 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $7 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,010.39 · official $1,010.39 (match) · 308 history records