Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:05:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A0 0xa0c1…4593 crypto 483 markets active 1h ago coverage 75d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$326 (-1%) realized −$326 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate91%440W / 43L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$69per market
Trades / day15.4pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$177
7 days−$168
14 days−$165
30 days−$142
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% −$376
sports 2% −$38
weather 1% −$25
other 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -17.3% -25.2% 79% 7% -27.5%
≤30d 43 -2.8% -12.1% 93% 9% -17.4%
≤90d 483 -3.8% -13.0% 91% 4% -10.7%
all 483 -3.8% -13.0% 91% 4% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.0% 4% -10.7%
10% -21.3% 2% -19.3%
15% -28.9% 1% -27.1%
20% -35.9% 1% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$32 · ×0.07 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

75d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$326
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)91%
Wins / losses440 / 43
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)483 / 483
History coverage75d
Avg bet$69
Trades / day15.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 483 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 20 $104 −$104 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 20 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 20 $81 +$27 +33%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $100 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 18 $70 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 18 $100 +$6 +6%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $100 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 18 $40 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $50 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 16 $30 +$1 +2%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $30 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 14 $30 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 10 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 09 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 09 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 07 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 06 $30 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 06 $100 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 02 $30 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 02 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 01 $60 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 01 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 01 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 01 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 01 $60 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET May 30 $30 +$4 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET May 30 $10 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET May 30 $10 +$4 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET May 30 $40 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET May 30 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET May 30 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET May 30 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET May 30 $30 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET May 29 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET May 28 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET May 28 $20 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET May 25 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET May 25 $30 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET May 23 $20 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET May 23 $10 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET May 23 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET May 20 $30 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET May 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET May 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET May 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET May 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET May 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET May 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $81 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $100 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 100¢ $100 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $40 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $30 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $100 2d
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 100¢ $20 2d
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 100¢ $20 2d
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 100¢ $30 2d
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 100¢ $30 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $20 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $20 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 99¢ $50 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $30 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 96¢ $10 5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 96¢ $20 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $30 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $20 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $20 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $10 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $30 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $100 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $30 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $10 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $20 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $20 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1694 history records