Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T21:21:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A0 0xa0c1…c1c2 crypto 137 markets active 1h ago coverage 129d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$102 (-33%) realized −$104 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -40% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -48% what you keep after slip
Net edge-48%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate17%22W / 111L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$22now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$6
14 days−$6
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 40% −$30
culture 22% −$66
other 14% −$25
world 13% +$33
sports 10% −$9
politics 1% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-45.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -53.5% -57.9% 10% 10% -42.7%
≤30d 10 -53.5% -57.9% 10% 10% -42.7%
≤90d 43 -74.0% -76.5% 5% 5% -80.2%
all 133 -40.1% -45.8% 17% 17% -41.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -45.8% 17% -41.3%
10% -51.0% 16% -47.0%
15% -55.7% 14% -52.1%
20% -60.1% 12% -56.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 46% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -78% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -40% · $-wt -35% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -78% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$2 · ×2.66 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

129d coverage
Net worth$22
Realized−$104
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses22 / 111
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)133 / 137
History coverage129d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 133 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 50¢ 100¢ $5 $10 +$5 (+100%)
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 9¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+12%)
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-12%)
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-58%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -94%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $2 +$7 +365%
Will Carter Hart win the 2026 NHL Conn Smythe Trophy? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -94%
Avalanche vs. Wild May 10 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Rasmus Dahlin win the 2025–2026 NHL James Norris Memorial Trophy? May 05 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in March? Apr 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Apr 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will "Project Hail Mary" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 65m and Apr 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will "Reminders of Him" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 19m and Apr 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Will "Virgin River: Season 7" be the top US Netflix show this week? Apr 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Will "Sinners" win exactly 6 awards at the Oscars? Apr 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Dominican Republic win the 2026 World Baseball Classic? Apr 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by March 31, 2026? Apr 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Paul Thomas Anderson win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards Apr 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Will "Project Hail Mary" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 70m and Apr 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Apr 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Forevergreen win Best Animated Short Film at the 98th Academy Awa Apr 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Jessie Buckley win Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards? Apr 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will "Project Hail Mary" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 60m and Apr 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will 'Arirang' - BTS debut week album sales be between 3.5m and 4m? Apr 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Navy Midshipmen vs. Wake Forest Demon Deacons Apr 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Apr 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Chloé Zhao win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards? Apr 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will "Reminders of Him" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 22m Apr 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Will "Project Hail Mary" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 50m? Apr 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Apr 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Leavitt say "Make Iran Great Again" during the next White House P Apr 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Will 'Arirang' - BTS debut week album sales be between 5m and 5.5m? Apr 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will "Project Hail Mary" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 50m and Apr 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Apr 28 $3 −$1 -31%
Will "Project Hail Mary" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 55m and Apr 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will "Risk It All" by Bruno Mars be the Billboard #1 song for the week Apr 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Apr 28 $1 +$5 +485%
Will Jake Oettinger win the 2025–2026 NHL Vezina Trophy? Apr 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Quinn Hughes win the 2025–2026 NHL James Norris Memorial Trophy? Mar 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Macklin Celebrini win the 2025–2026 NHL Hart Memorial Trophy? Mar 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Will The Secret Agent win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 16 $1 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Mar 15 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Mar 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Mar 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Mar 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Mar 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Mar 15 $2 +$1 +35%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $1 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 50¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $1 21h
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 39h
Will Carter Hart win the 2026 NHL Conn Smythe Trophy? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 42h
Will Carter Hart win the 2026 NHL Conn Smythe Trophy? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 42h
Will Carter Hart win the 2026 NHL Conn Smythe Trophy? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 42h
Will Carter Hart win the 2026 NHL Conn Smythe Trophy? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 42h
Will Carter Hart win the 2026 NHL Conn Smythe Trophy? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 42h
Will Carter Hart win the 2026 NHL Conn Smythe Trophy? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 42h
Will Carter Hart win the 2026 NHL Conn Smythe Trophy? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 42h
Will Carter Hart win the 2026 NHL Conn Smythe Trophy? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 42h
Will Carter Hart win the 2026 NHL Conn Smythe Trophy? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 42h
Will Carter Hart win the 2026 NHL Conn Smythe Trophy? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 42h
Will Carter Hart win the 2026 NHL Conn Smythe Trophy? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 42h
Will Carter Hart win the 2026 NHL Conn Smythe Trophy? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 42h
Will Carter Hart win the 2026 NHL Conn Smythe Trophy? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 42h
Will Carter Hart win the 2026 NHL Conn Smythe Trophy? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 42h
Will Carter Hart win the 2026 NHL Conn Smythe Trophy? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 42h
Will Carter Hart win the 2026 NHL Conn Smythe Trophy? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 42h
Will Carter Hart win the 2026 NHL Conn Smythe Trophy? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 42h
Will Carter Hart win the 2026 NHL Conn Smythe Trophy? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 42h
Will Carter Hart win the 2026 NHL Conn Smythe Trophy? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 42h
Will Carter Hart win the 2026 NHL Conn Smythe Trophy? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 42h
Will Carter Hart win the 2026 NHL Conn Smythe Trophy? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 42h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $22.09 · official $22.09 (match) · 552 history records