Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T17:55:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

A0
0xa0c0…d2a4
sports · 40 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$67 -14%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$66 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Net worth$8
Realized−$66
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses19 / 19
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)38 / 40
History coverage72d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%
Chart Positions 2 History 38 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-0%)
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays New York Yankees 53¢ 52¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-3%)
Will "Running Point: Season 2" be the top US Netflix show this week? Yes 15¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? No 47¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 25 to April 27, 2026? No 56¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 3.5 Over 49¢ $21 $0 −$21 (-100%)
Zalgiris Kaunas vs. Fenerbahce Zalgiris Kaunas 54¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 3.5 Over 60¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 2.5 Over 52¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the 2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election? Yes 53¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Daniel Evans vs Marcos Giron Jun 13 $4 $0 -10%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Dino Prizmic vs Rinky Hijikata Jun 13 $4 $0 +11%
FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 3.5 May 10 $22 −$21 -98%
Zalgiris Kaunas vs. Fenerbahce May 08 $10 −$10 -99%
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 3.5 May 06 $30 −$30 -99%
Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 2.5 May 05 $5 −$5 -99%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 3.5 Apr 28 $23 +$24 +101%
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the Apr 28 $7 −$5 -66%
Will Lithuania be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? Apr 28 $2 $0 -22%
Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 28 $5 −$3 -64%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in April? Apr 28 $5 +$1 +25%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 28 $7 $0 +4%
Will Bruno Mars have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners Apr 28 $6 $0 +4%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? Apr 28 $10 +$2 +19%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 28 $2 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Apr 27 $5 −$5 -97%
Liverpool FC vs. Fulham FC: O/U 4.5 Apr 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Liverpool FC vs. Fulham FC: O/U 3.5 Apr 27 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Trump attend UFC 327? Apr 27 $17 −$6 -36%
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 27 $2 +$4 +178%
Will "Running Point: Season 2" be the top US Netflix show this week? Apr 27 $2 −$2 -96%
Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" 4th Weekend Box Office be greater Apr 27 $2 −$2 -90%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 25 to April 27, 2026? Apr 25 $5 −$5 -98%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 27, 2026? Apr 25 $5 +$3 +69%
Liverpool FC vs. Crystal Palace FC: O/U 3.5 Apr 25 $3 +$4 +139%
Everton FC vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 2.5 Apr 20 $3 +$3 +86%
Zalgiris Kaunas vs. Paris Basketball Apr 19 $4 +$1 +29%
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from April 10 to Apr Apr 17 $5 +$4 +84%
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 13 $39 +$4 +10%
Game 2: Any Player Penta Kill? Apr 12 $5 $0 +5%
Will "Trump" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast? Apr 11 $31 +$1 +4%
Will "Elizabeth Taylor" get 3 million or more views in the first week? Apr 09 $31 $0 -0%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 3.5 Apr 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 22°C or higher on April Apr 08 $39 +$1 +3%
Will Trump say "Moon" this week? (April 12) Apr 07 $41 −$1 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be 75°F or below on April 7? Apr 07 $40 +$1 +3%
Manchester City FC vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 3.5 Apr 06 $3 +$4 +144%
Zalgiris Kaunas vs. Barcelona Apr 03 $3 +$2 +57%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 35% −$66
other 21% −$8
politics 18% $0
weather 17% +$3
world 5% +$6
culture 2% −$2
tech 1% $0
finance 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY New York Yankees 53¢ $4 30m
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $4 37m
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $4 1h
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Daniel Evans vs Marcos Giron SELL Marcos Giron 60¢ $4 1h
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Dino Prizmic vs Rinky Hijikata SELL Dino Prizmic 55¢ $5 1h
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Daniel Evans vs Marcos Giron BUY Marcos Giron 65¢ $4 1h
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Dino Prizmic vs Rinky Hijikata BUY Dino Prizmic 48¢ $4 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $4 1h
FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 49¢ $22 33d
Zalgiris Kaunas vs. Fenerbahce BUY Zalgiris Kaunas 54¢ $10 36d
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 60¢ $30 37d
Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $5 39d
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $47 45d
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 49¢ $20 45d
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the BUY Yes 53¢ $5 45d
Will Lithuania be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $2 46d
Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $2 46d
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the SELL Yes 52¢ $2 46d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in April? SELL No 90¢ $6 46d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 90¢ $7 46d
Will Bruno Mars have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners SELL Yes 89¢ $6 46d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $12 46d
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 64¢ $2 46d
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 48¢ $3 46d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? BUY No 47¢ $5 46d
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of April 2026? SELL Yes 87¢ $6 47d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 86¢ $7 47d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in April? BUY No 71¢ $5 47d
Will Bruno Mars have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners BUY Yes 84¢ $6 47d
Will "Running Point: Season 2" be the top US Netflix show this week? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 47d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-17.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.8% -8.8% 50% 50% -8.8%
≤30d 2 +0.8% -8.8% 50% 50% -8.8%
≤90d 38 -9.0% -17.7% 50% 32% -22.7%
all 38 -9.0% -17.7% 50% 32% -22.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.7% 32% -22.7%
10% -25.6% 26% -30.1%
15% -32.8% 21% -36.8%
20% -39.4% 21% -43.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.85 · official $7.93 (match) · 80 history records