Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T17:40:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
A0 0xa0be…e6c2 sports 44 markets active 0h ago coverage 181d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this sports specialist
Total PnL +$569 (+21%) realized +$572 · open −$3
Gross ROI / mkt +31% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +18% what you keep after slip
Net edge+18%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate62%25W / 15L
Drawdown48%max
Avg bet$62per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$25est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$72now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$153
7 days+$172
14 days+$172
30 days+$172
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% +$698
weather 1% −$37
other 1% −$23
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)+18.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 +23.7% +11.9% 56% 56% -0.9%
≤30d 32 +23.7% +11.9% 56% 56% -0.9%
≤90d 32 +23.7% +11.9% 56% 56% -0.9%
all 40 +30.8% +18.3% 62% 62% +12.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +18.3% 62% +12.8%
10% +7.0% 62% +2.0%
15% -3.3% 60% -7.8%
20% -12.8% 60% -16.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +31% · $-wt +25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +50% → late +12% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$64 vs −$63 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.68 per $1 lost it wins $1.68
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

181d coverage
Net worth$72
Realized+$572
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses25 / 15
Est. fees paid−$25
Open positions2
Markets (closed)40 / 44
History coverage181d
Avg bet$62
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown48%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Polina Iatcenko vs Zhuoxuan Bai Zhuoxuan Bai 53¢ 52¢ $73 $72 −$1 (-1%)
Set 1 Winner: Prozorova vs Watson Watson 42¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
ITF Tanger: Ali Missoum vs Federico Valle Jun 24 $48 +$70 +145%
Set 1 Winner: Masarova vs Teichmann Jun 24 $32 −$32 -100%
ITF Bakio: Roberto Perez Socas vs Emile Hudd Jun 24 $51 −$51 -100%
Set 1 Winner: Mejia vs Heide Jun 24 $81 −$81 -100%
Bad Homburg Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Clara Tauson Jun 24 $68 +$87 +129%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $24 +$14 +57%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $68 +$83 +124%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Moyuka Uchijima vs Esther Adeshina Jun 23 $51 +$33 +64%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 23? Jun 23 $37 −$37 -100%
Set 1 Winner: Neumayer vs Lajovic Jun 23 $20 −$20 -100%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $71 +$75 +105%
Set 2 Winner: Herbert vs Jubb Jun 22 $20 +$12 +60%
Set 1 Winner: Schwaerzler vs O'Connell Jun 22 $120 +$31 +26%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Elisabetta Cocciaretto Jun 22 $45 +$37 +82%
Set 2 Winner: Kjaer vs Silva Jun 22 $22 +$48 +216%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Oliver Tarvet vs Alex Bolt Jun 22 $22 −$22 -100%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $61 +$75 +123%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 21 $61 −$61 -100%
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Solana Sierra vs Anna Blinkova Jun 21 $108 −$108 -100%
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 3 Japan? Jun 21 $23 −$23 -100%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $63 +$84 +134%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Team Falcons (-3.5) vs FURIA (+3.5) Jun 21 $61 +$70 +114%
HSBC Championships: Francisco Cerundolo vs Tommy Paul Jun 21 $61 +$64 +105%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $45 +$65 +145%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $33 +$29 +86%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $48 −$48 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $46 −$46 -100%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz Jun 20 $67 −$67 -100%
ITF Monastir: Ergi Kirkin vs Billy Blaydes Jun 20 $48 −$48 -100%
Nottingham Open: Karolina Pliskova vs Marie Bouzkova Jun 20 $70 +$63 +90%
Spread: Lions (-2.5) Jun 20 $204 −$204 -100%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 AND Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $23 +$80 +354%
Spread: Lions (-6.5) Jan 15 $220 +$198 +90%
Spread: Knicks (-5.5) Dec 25 $100 −$100 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks Dec 25 $100 +$82 +82%
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs L1ga Team - Game 2 Winner Dec 25 $80 +$61 +77%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) Dec 25 $88 +$93 +105%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Dec 25 $58 +$30 +51%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Dec 25 $100 +$53 +53%
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Ninjas in Pyjamas - Game 2 Winner Dec 25 $45 +$51 +114%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Polina Iatcenko vs Zhuoxuan Bai BUY Zhuoxuan Bai 53¢ $74 14m
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 AND Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U BUY $24 16m
Set 1 Winner: Prozorova vs Watson BUY Watson 42¢ $2 28m
ITF Tanger: Ali Missoum vs Federico Valle SELL Ali Missoum 100¢ $118 1h
ITF Tanger: Ali Missoum vs Federico Valle BUY Ali Missoum 40¢ $48 3h
Bad Homburg Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Clara Tauson BUY Clara Tauson 43¢ $68 6h
Set 1 Winner: Mejia vs Heide BUY Heide 62¢ $81 6h
ITF Bakio: Roberto Perez Socas vs Emile Hudd BUY Roberto Perez Socas 65¢ $51 8h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 63¢ $24 13h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 44¢ $68 25h
Set 1 Winner: Masarova vs Teichmann BUY Masarova 73¢ $32 27h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Moyuka Uchijima vs Esther Adeshina SELL Esther Adeshina 100¢ $84 29h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Moyuka Uchijima vs Esther Adeshina BUY Esther Adeshina 60¢ $51 30h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 23? SELL Yes $0 35h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 23? BUY Yes 17¢ $20 37h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 23? BUY Yes 24¢ $17 38h
Set 2 Winner: Herbert vs Jubb BUY Jubb 62¢ $20 47h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 48¢ $71 47h
Set 1 Winner: Schwaerzler vs O'Connell SELL OConnell 100¢ $150 2d
Set 1 Winner: Schwaerzler vs O'Connell BUY OConnell 79¢ $120 2d
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Elisabetta Cocciaretto SELL Ajla Tomljanovic 100¢ $83 2d
Set 1 Winner: Neumayer vs Lajovic BUY Neumayer 51¢ $20 2d
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Elisabetta Cocciaretto BUY Ajla Tomljanovic 54¢ $45 2d
Set 2 Winner: Kjaer vs Silva SELL Silva 100¢ $71 2d
Set 2 Winner: Kjaer vs Silva BUY Silva 31¢ $22 2d
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Oliver Tarvet vs Alex Bolt BUY Alex Bolt 54¢ $22 2d
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $136 2d
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $61 2d
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $147 2d
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $63 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $72.42 · official $95.77 · 87 history records