Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:27:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A0 0xa0be…6605 other 795 markets active 1h ago coverage 185d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$25 (-1%) realized −$50 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate41%307W / 436L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day6.3pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$132now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$10
7 days+$26
14 days−$28
30 days−$34
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$42
sports 39% +$2
politics 4% −$12
culture 4% −$3
world 3% +$3
crypto 2% +$2
tech 1% −$2
economics 1% +$2
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-15.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 88 +6.5% -3.7% 59% 48% -5.2%
≤30d 559 -7.2% -16.0% 39% 35% -11.7%
≤90d 707 -7.3% -16.1% 41% 36% -12.4%
all 743 -7.0% -15.8% 41% 36% -12.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.8% 36% -12.2%
10% -23.9% 30% -20.6%
15% -31.2% 24% -28.3%
20% -38.0% 20% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.27 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

185d coverage
Net worth$132
Realized−$50
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses307 / 436
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions52
Markets (closed)743 / 795
History coverage185d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day6.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 52 History 743 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Yes 92¢ 100¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+9%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Over 89¢ 88¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-1%)
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? Yes 61¢ 53¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-13%)
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 70¢ 66¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-5%)
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 70¢ 72¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+2%)
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 68¢ 72¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+7%)
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 41¢ 72¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+74%)
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 73¢ 72¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 64¢ 62¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 Over 71¢ 100¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+41%)
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 73¢ 60¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-18%)
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 54¢ 46¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-14%)
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 Over 23¢ 76¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+228%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Over 71¢ 72¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Over 74¢ 74¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 72¢ 72¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Over 73¢ 72¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Yes 52¢ 50¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-3%)
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Yes 63¢ 78¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+25%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 42¢ 88¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+111%)
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 60¢ 46¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-24%)
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Over 44¢ 100¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+127%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will Hanwha Life Esports win the LCK 2026 season playoffs? Yes 12¢ 21¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+80%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $17 +$1 +8%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 9.5 Jun 15 $1 $0 +0%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $2 −$2 -94%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +85%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $1 +$1 +113%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $2 +$1 +52%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $1 +$3 +261%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $3 +$1 +35%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $2 +$2 +111%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $15 +$2 +12%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $1 +$2 +157%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $5 +$5 +94%
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $1 $0 -15%
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 14 $3 −$1 -18%
US recession by end of 2026? Jun 14 $1 $0 -44%
Will Apple release a new product line before 2027? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -58%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $6 $0 +0%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $2 +$2 +74%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $17 +$3 +20%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026 Jun 14 $15 $0 -1%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -89%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $17 +$2 +11%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 +$3 +289%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 +$6 +593%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $40 +$2 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $5 −$4 -78%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $3 +$1 +37%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 $0 -12%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 $0 -11%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $2 −$1 -29%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $8 −$8 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $48 $0 +1%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $1 −$1 -81%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $79 +$2 +3%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 13 $12 +$4 +34%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $9 −$4 -40%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $6 +$2 +28%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $32 +$1 +2%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $2 +$3 +164%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $12 +$5 +42%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $4 +$1 +33%
England leading at halftime? Jun 11 $1 +$1 +52%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 46¢ $1 42m
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 23¢ $1 1h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $1 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 92¢ $10 2h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY No 92¢ $17 2h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 63¢ $2 2h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 62¢ $4 2h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 63¢ $4 2h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 62¢ $1 2h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 4¢ $0 2h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 52¢ $2 11h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $1 11h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 73¢ $3 11h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 31¢ $1 11h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $1 12h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 73¢ $3 12h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 27¢ $1 13h
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL Yes 20¢ $1 13h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 65¢ $2 13h
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? SELL Yes 60¢ $3 13h
US recession by end of 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $1 13h
Will Apple release a new product line before 2027? SELL Yes 36¢ $0 13h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 52¢ $1 15h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 67¢ $2 15h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $1 15h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 74¢ $3 15h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 61¢ $1 15h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 30¢ $1 15h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 50¢ $1 15h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 89¢ $9 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $131.72 · official $131.43 (match) · 1741 history records