Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T07:59:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

A0
0xa0bc…d428
world · 279 markets active 0h ago
2.0score
+$20,019 +12%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$14,961 · open +$1,107
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY world specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$39,006
Realized+$14,961
Unrealized+$1,107
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses121 / 67
Whale WR (big bets)77%
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions106
Markets (closed)188 / 279
Avg bet$617
Trades / day74.9
Drawdown60%
Kalshi-fit88%
Chart Positions 106 History 188 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$573
7 days+$1,278
14 days+$8,515
30 days+$21,256
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? No 81¢ 88¢ $2,512 $2,701 +$189 (+8%)
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027? No 83¢ 81¢ $2,360 $2,308 −$52 (-2%)
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes 60¢ 74¢ $1,239 $1,541 +$302 (+24%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? No 56¢ 68¢ $1,118 $1,350 +$232 (+21%)
Trump out as President before 2027? No 90¢ 90¢ $1,185 $1,196 +$11 (+1%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? No 66¢ 66¢ $990 $998 +$8 (+1%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 93¢ 94¢ $934 $939 +$6 (+1%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? No 25¢ 26¢ $892 $927 +$35 (+4%)
Will Marco Rubio attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? No 88¢ 85¢ $945 $918 −$27 (-3%)
U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by June 30? No 95¢ 99¢ $858 $890 +$32 (+4%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Vladimir Putin by June 30, 2026? No 92¢ 97¢ $829 $873 +$44 (+5%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? No 97¢ 97¢ $869 $870 +$1 (+0%)
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? Yes 28¢ 38¢ $638 $867 +$229 (+36%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026? No 72¢ 68¢ $866 $822 −$44 (-5%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? No 37¢ 30¢ $992 $810 −$182 (-18%)
Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by June 30, 2026? No 97¢ 98¢ $778 $784 +$6 (+1%)
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 63¢ 57¢ $816 $747 −$69 (-8%)
Will Russia invade another country in 2026? No 87¢ 88¢ $733 $744 +$11 (+2%)
Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in 2026? No 45¢ 56¢ $583 $727 +$144 (+25%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in June? No 89¢ 97¢ $625 $680 +$55 (+9%)
Will Trump and Putin not meet? Yes 90¢ 98¢ $556 $606 +$50 (+9%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? No 89¢ 88¢ $576 $575 −$1 (-0%)
Will Israel annex Gaza territory by June 30 2026? No 96¢ 99¢ $537 $552 +$15 (+3%)
Iran coup attempt by June 30? No 96¢ 97¢ $532 $535 +$4 (+1%)
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? No 96¢ 98¢ $522 $533 +$11 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st? Jun 12 $78 −$78 -100%
Will Trump announce that the US x Iran ceasefire has been broken by Ap Jun 12 $391 −$414 -106%
Israel military action against Yemen by April 15, 2026? Jun 12 $36 −$94 -265%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? Jun 12 $48 +$1,109 +2318%
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by April 30? Jun 12 $112 −$173 -154%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in April? Jun 12 $270 −$270 -100%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Joe Biden by May 31, 2026? Jun 12 $11 −$11 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026? Jun 12 $239 −$263 -110%
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by May 31? Jun 12 $58 −$58 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 12 $1,746 +$494 +28%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? Jun 11 $776 +$29 +4%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 11 $209 +$222 +106%
Trump goes to space in 2026? Jun 11 $572 +$4 +1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $958 +$86 +9%
Will Donald Trump attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Jun 11 $580 −$4 -1%
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $20 −$13 -67%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 10 $64 +$8 +12%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30? Jun 09 $14 +$6 +41%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 08 $613 +$59 +10%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 08 $326 −$324 -99%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $410 +$150 +37%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 08 $285 +$79 +28%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 07 $667 +$792 +119%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $910 −$418 -46%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? Jun 07 $142 −$48 -34%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 07 $390 −$366 -94%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $1,608 +$311 +19%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 07 $29,722 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $98 −$26 -27%
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $1,996 −$482 -24%
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $1,480 +$209 +14%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 05 $745 +$763 +102%
Will Trump speak to Maria Corina Machado in May? Jun 04 $52 +$3 +6%
Will Trump speak to Kim Jong Un in May? Jun 04 $100 +$3 +3%
Will Trump speak to Keir Starmer in May? Jun 04 $42 +$63 +148%
Will Trump speak to Pope Leo XIV in May? Jun 04 $255 +$17 +7%
Will Trump speak to Masoud Pezeshkian in May? Jun 04 $386 +$15 +4%
Will Trump speak to Reza Pahlavi in May? Jun 04 $614 +$10 +2%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 03 $708 +$315 +44%
Israeli forces enter Beirut by June 30? Jun 03 $180 +$14 +8%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? Jun 02 $205 −$185 -90%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 02 $2,503 −$87 -4%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 02 $49 +$4 +7%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $279 +$125 +45%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? Jun 02 $1,739 +$42 +2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May? Jun 02 $296 +$4 +2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May? Jun 02 $278 +$193 +69%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May? Jun 02 $660 +$101 +15%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in May? Jun 02 $620 +$44 +7%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 02 $905 +$115 +13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 60% +$13,047
politics 26% +$2,620
finance 7% +$1,358
other 5% −$778
crypto 2% −$443
sports 0% +$515
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
President Trump to Attend World Cup Final? BUY Yes 84¢ $6 12m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 81¢ $243 2h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY No 96¢ $96 6h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in June? SELL No 82¢ $136 9h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in June? SELL No 82¢ $24 9h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in June? SELL No 82¢ $82 10h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in June? SELL No 82¢ $98 10h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? SELL No 85¢ $380 11h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 26¢ $27 11h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 26¢ $104 11h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $52 12h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL Yes 61¢ $47 12h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL Yes 61¢ $1 12h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL Yes 61¢ $1 12h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL Yes 61¢ $1 12h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL Yes 61¢ $3 12h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL Yes 61¢ $5 12h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL Yes 61¢ $1 12h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL Yes 61¢ $5 12h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL Yes 61¢ $1 12h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL Yes 61¢ $1 12h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL Yes 61¢ $171 12h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 26¢ $25 12h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? SELL No 85¢ $138 12h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL Yes 61¢ $8 12h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? BUY Yes 13¢ $42 12h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL Yes 61¢ $1 12h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? BUY Yes 13¢ $0 12h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? BUY Yes 13¢ $9 12h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 76¢ $228 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)+58.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 +40.3% +27.0% 47% 34% -6.4%
≤30d 140 +47.1% +33.1% 66% 41% +11.2%
≤90d 188 +75.4% +58.7% 64% 39% +2.4%
all 188 +75.4% +58.7% 64% 39% +2.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover74.9 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +58.7% 39% +2.4%
10% +43.5% 31% -7.4%
15% ← realistic here +29.6% 27% -16.3%
20% +16.9% 23% -24.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39,005.91 · official $39,006.53 (match) · 3500 history records