Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T10:27:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
A0 0xa0ba…0ecc sports 5 markets active 2d ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL +$191 (+40%) realized +$269 · open −$78
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +77% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +54% what you keep after slip
Net edge+54%after slip
Net WR100%break-even
Win rate100%3W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$96per market
Trades / day6.0pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$84now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 66% +$255
world 34% −$78
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +100%
net ROI/market (all)+60.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +76.8% +60.0% 100% 100% +62.7%
≤30d 3 +76.8% +60.0% 100% 100% +62.7%
≤90d 3 +76.8% +60.0% 100% 100% +62.7%
all 3 +76.8% +60.0% 100% 100% +62.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +60.0% 100% +62.7%
10% +44.7% 100% +47.2%
15% +30.7% 100% +32.9%
20% +17.9% 67% +19.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 57% · top 2 84% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +80% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +77% · $-wt +80% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$85 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$84
Realized+$269
Unrealized−$78
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses3 / 0
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)3 / 5
History coverage1d
Avg bet$96
Trades / day6.0
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 16¢ 7¢ $108 $51 −$57 (-53%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Yes 43¢ 26¢ $54 $33 −$21 (-38%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the announcers say "Ronaldo" during the England vs Croatia FIFA W Jun 18 $131 +$145 +111%
Will the announcers say "What A Save" during the England vs Croatia FI Jun 18 $102 +$42 +41%
Will the announcers say "Messi" during the England vs Croatia FIFA Wor Jun 17 $87 +$68 +79%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $84.22 · official $84.22 (match) · 9 history records