Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T01:30:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
A0 0xa0ba…b2f2 other 120 markets active 1h ago coverage 23d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$27 (+1%) realized +$35 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate59%46W / 32L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day8.4pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit51%portable
Net worth$789now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$30
7 days+$24
14 days+$24
30 days+$24
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 56% +$15
sports 21% $0
tech 20% +$6
world 1% +$2
culture 1% −$1
crypto 0% −$5
finance 0% $0
politics 0% $0
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 54 +6.7% -3.5% 59% 44% -7.7%
≤30d 78 +0.3% -9.3% 59% 38% -8.4%
≤90d 78 +0.3% -9.3% 59% 38% -8.4%
all 78 +0.3% -9.3% 59% 38% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 38% -8.4%
10% -17.9% 28% -17.2%
15% -25.9% 27% -25.2%
20% -33.1% 19% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 57% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
35% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$6 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.12 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

23d coverage
Net worth$789
Realized+$35
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses46 / 32
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions37
Markets (closed)78 / 120
History coverage23d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day8.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit51%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 37 History 78 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Yes 82¢ 82¢ $404 $404 +$0 (+0%)
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Yes 87¢ 86¢ $152 $149 −$3 (-2%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 95¢ 99¢ $58 $60 +$2 (+4%)
Anthropic IPO before 2027? Yes 84¢ 74¢ $50 $44 −$6 (-12%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 51¢ 52¢ $24 $24 +$0 (+2%)
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 24¢ $12 $11 −$1 (-9%)
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? No 89¢ 91¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+1%)
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Yes 62¢ 64¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+4%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 92¢ 95¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+4%)
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? No 94¢ 97¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027? No 95¢ 97¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will Uzbekistan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 82¢ 82¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Panama advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 89¢ 88¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026? No 88¢ 87¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Jordan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 90¢ 88¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Qatar advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 89¢ 87¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 90¢ 88¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Yes 62¢ 94¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+52%)
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Aleksandar Kovacevic Aleksandar Kovacevic 50¢ 50¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+1%)
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? No 46¢ 33¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-28%)
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? No 88¢ 90¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+2%)
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? No 97¢ 97¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 24¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $100 +$3 +3%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $3 +$2 +58%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $5 +$3 +60%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $1 +$3 +325%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $1 +$4 +365%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $110 +$13 +12%
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month? Jun 21 $121 +$2 +1%
Will Tunisia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 21 $105 +$5 +4%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $105 +$6 +6%
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 21 $2 −$1 -87%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $1 $0 +10%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $3 +$2 +55%
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 20 $10 +$2 +17%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $401 +$49 +12%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $5 +$4 +73%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $3 +$2 +60%
Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027? Jun 19 $5 $0 +5%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? Jun 19 $6 +$1 +11%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $9 +$3 +30%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $3 +$2 +55%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $1 +$3 +262%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? Jun 18 $5 +$1 +17%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $5 +$2 +40%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $9 +$1 +8%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2 +$1 +73%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $2 +$9 +442%
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Jun 17 $8 $0 +4%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 +$2 +36%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 $0 -37%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $4 +$1 +40%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $5 +$1 +20%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $4 +$2 +48%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 47m
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 62¢ $3 47m
Will France win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 94¢ $103 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $101 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? AN BUY 7¢ $1 12h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $101 13h
Targu Mures: Radu Albot vs Duje Ajdukovic BUY Duje Ajdukovic 64¢ $1 24h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 82¢ $101 27h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 28h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $5 28h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 30¢ $1 37h
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month? SELL Up 90¢ $40 38h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Iraq win on 2026-06-26? BUY 63¢ $1 38h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Aleksandar Kovacevic BUY Aleksandar Kovacevic 50¢ $3 38h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Aleksandar Kovacevic BUY Aleksandar Kovacevic 50¢ $1 38h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? AN BUY 30¢ $1 43h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 97¢ $100 44h
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 44h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 50¢ $20 44h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 44h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 44h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 50¢ $2 44h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 75¢ $5 44h
Will Tunisia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 96¢ $100 45h
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? BUY Yes 87¢ $1 46h
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month? SELL Up 83¢ $82 47h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 91¢ $1 47h
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Frances Tiafoe BUY Frances Tiafoe 85¢ $10 2d
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $2 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 65¢ $5 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $789.15 · official $796.16 (match) · 257 history records