Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T18:35:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A0 0xa0b9…6048 world 663 markets active 2h ago coverage 289d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 288d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$2,101 (+3%) realized +$1,665 · open +$436
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate60%371W / 247L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown55%max
Avg bet$111per market
Trades / day10.5pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$5,626now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,962
7 days−$1,997
14 days−$1,949
30 days−$1,483
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 70% +$3,017
other 14% −$1,105
politics 8% −$518
crypto 3% +$406
finance 1% +$50
sports 1% +$184
tech 1% +$35
economics 0% −$36
culture 0% +$35
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-12.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -44.8% -50.1% 24% 8% -47.9%
≤30d 53 -12.2% -20.5% 62% 38% -25.7%
≤90d 195 +1.7% -8.0% 66% 44% -10.6%
all 618 -3.6% -12.8% 60% 39% -7.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.8% 39% -7.3%
10% -21.1% 22% -16.2%
15% -28.7% 15% -24.3%
20% -35.7% 11% -31.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
34% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -8% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$36 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.18 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

289d coverage
Net worth$5,626
Realized+$1,665
Unrealized+$436
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses371 / 247
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions45
Markets (closed)618 / 663
History coverage289d ⚠
Avg bet$111
Trades / day10.5
Drawdown55%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 45 History 618 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30? No 89¢ 97¢ $446 $486 +$40 (+9%)
Will Russia capture Lyman by June 30, 2026? No 73¢ 92¢ $196 $250 +$53 (+27%)
Will Russia capture Dorozhnie by June 30, 2026? No 90¢ 93¢ $221 $227 +$6 (+3%)
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by June 30? No 64¢ 82¢ $172 $223 +$51 (+29%)
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by June 30? No 78¢ 86¢ $199 $221 +$21 (+11%)
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes 72¢ 84¢ $181 $210 +$29 (+16%)
Iran leadership change by June 30? No 91¢ 99¢ $183 $198 +$15 (+8%)
Will Russia capture Huliaipilske by June 30? No 82¢ 90¢ $182 $198 +$16 (+9%)
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by June 30? No 90¢ 93¢ $180 $186 +$6 (+3%)
Will Russia capture Sofiivka by June 30? No 76¢ 91¢ $152 $182 +$30 (+20%)
Will Russia capture Dovha Balka by June 30? No 84¢ 90¢ $167 $180 +$13 (+8%)
Will Russia capture all of Bilytske by June 30? No 87¢ 99¢ $157 $179 +$21 (+14%)
NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 99¢ $173 $178 +$5 (+3%)
Will Russia capture Bilytske by June 30, 2026? No 85¢ 98¢ $153 $177 +$24 (+16%)
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? No 95¢ 98¢ $171 $177 +$6 (+3%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 88¢ 98¢ $159 $176 +$17 (+11%)
Will Russia capture Stavky by July 31? No 76¢ 89¢ $136 $160 +$24 (+18%)
Will Trump and Putin not meet? Yes 78¢ 98¢ $126 $158 +$32 (+26%)
Will Russia capture Kindrativka by June 30? No 88¢ 86¢ $159 $155 −$4 (-3%)
Will Russia capture Verkhnia Tersa by July 31? No 67¢ 72¢ $140 $150 +$10 (+7%)
Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by June 30? No 80¢ 81¢ $145 $148 +$3 (+2%)
Will Russia capture Toretske by July 31, 2026? No 75¢ 76¢ $135 $137 +$2 (+1%)
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by July 31? No 78¢ 72¢ $141 $130 −$11 (-8%)
Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by June 30, 2026? No 91¢ 96¢ $101 $106 +$5 (+5%)
Will Russia capture Prymorske by June 30, 2026? No 91¢ 99¢ $96 $105 +$9 (+9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $73 +$6 +9%
Will Russia capture Riasne by May 31? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Ukraine re-enter Myrnohrad by May 31? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $53 −$37 -70%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 18 $24 −$24 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? Jun 18 $8 −$8 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $115 −$71 -62%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? Jun 18 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Russia capture all of Hryshyne by June 30? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Russia capture all of Hryshyne by May 31? Jun 18 $122 −$122 -100%
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by May 31, 2026? Jun 18 $118 −$118 -100%
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $215 −$215 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $1,763 −$495 -28%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? Jun 18 $1,112 −$636 -57%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $297 −$178 -60%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 17 $165 +$14 +8%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in June? Jun 16 $73 +$7 +9%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 15 $8 +$28 +354%
Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in June? Jun 14 $57 −$57 -100%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 14 $44 −$18 -40%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 20 Jun 12 $49 +$6 +12%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 12 $81 +$5 +6%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $254 −$6 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 10 $84 +$15 +18%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 09 $50 +$20 +39%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $167 +$13 +8%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 04 $442 +$76 +17%
Will Russia capture Kindrativka by May 31? Jun 01 $153 +$27 +18%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $135 +$15 +11%
Will Russia capture Pokrovka by May 31? Jun 01 $162 +$18 +11%
Will Russia capture Dovha Balka by May 31? Jun 01 $161 +$29 +18%
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by May 31? Jun 01 $138 +$42 +30%
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by May 31? Jun 01 $64 +$16 +25%
Will Russia capture Verkhnia Tersa by May 31? Jun 01 $153 +$27 +18%
Will Russia capture Sofiivka by May 31? Jun 01 $104 +$10 +9%
Will Russia capture Huliaipilske by May 31? Jun 01 $166 +$14 +8%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by May 31? Jun 01 $158 +$22 +14%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 01 $76 +$24 +32%
Will Russia capture Serhiivka by May 31? Jun 01 $55 +$7 +12%
Will Russia capture Toretske by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $162 +$18 +11%
Will Russia capture Havrylivka by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $32 +$1 +4%
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by May 31, 2026? May 31 $198 +$10 +5%
Will Russia capture Lyman by May 31, 2026? May 31 $76 +$5 +7%
Will Russia capture Myropillia by May 31? May 31 $160 +$20 +12%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 31 $49 +$51 +104%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 30 $87 +$12 +14%
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? May 29 $167 +$12 +7%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31? May 29 $44 +$6 +15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture Dorozhnie by July 31, 2026? BUY No 83¢ $16 1h
Will Russia capture Dorozhnie by June 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $59 1h
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by June 30? BUY No 86¢ $47 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $80 3h
Will Russia capture Dorozhnie by July 31, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $8 3h
Will Russia capture Dorozhnie by July 31, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $18 3h
Will Russia capture Dorozhnie by July 31, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $9 4h
Will Russia capture Dorozhnie by July 31, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $8 4h
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $90 5h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 18h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 18h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 18h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 19h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $5 23h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $178 25h
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by July 31? BUY No 80¢ $88 46h
Will Russia capture Dorozhnie by July 31, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $23 46h
Will Russia capture Dorozhnie by June 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $151 46h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in June? SELL No 99¢ $75 2d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in June? SELL No 99¢ $4 2d
Will Russia capture Kindrativka by June 30? BUY No 89¢ $117 2d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 58¢ $58 3d
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes 79¢ $15 3d
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes 79¢ $63 3d
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by July 31? BUY No 76¢ $53 3d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $48 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 59¢ $35 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $139 3d
Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in June? SELL No 0¢ $0 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 45¢ $22 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,625.61 · official $5,625.63 (match) · 3500 history records