Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T00:56:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A0 0xa0b8…e424 other 31 markets active 2h ago coverage 36d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$7,874 (-27%) realized −$8,867 · open +$993
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate45%13W / 16L
Whale WR25%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$924per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$152est.
Kalshi-fit48%portable
Net worth$3,505now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3,650
7 days−$5,650
14 days−$7,454
30 days−$8,342
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 60% +$2,136
sports 26% −$6,102
crypto 13% −$3,349
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-29.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -14.3% -22.5% 44% 44% -49.8%
≤30d 24 -28.9% -35.6% 38% 38% -38.9%
≤90d 29 -22.4% -29.7% 45% 38% -38.6%
all 29 -22.4% -29.7% 45% 38% -38.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.7% 38% -38.6%
10% -36.5% 28% -44.5%
15% -42.6% 28% -49.8%
20% -48.2% 21% -54.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 70% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -32% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -32% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 25% (≥$987) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -27% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$514 vs −$937 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

36d coverage
Net worth$3,505
Realized−$8,867
Unrealized+$993
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses13 / 16
Whale WR (big bets)25%
Est. fees paid−$152
Open positions2
Markets (closed)29 / 31
History coverage36d
Avg bet$924
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit48%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? No 47¢ 62¢ $2,224 $2,957 +$733 (+33%)
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? No 44¢ 84¢ $289 $549 +$260 (+90%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $413 +$65 +16%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $1,003 −$987 -98%
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals Jun 27 $370 +$168 +45%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $1,728 −$1,721 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $338 −$332 -98%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 26 $50 +$57 +114%
Norway vs. France: O/U 4.5 Jun 26 $224 +$30 +13%
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $1,425 −$1,398 -98%
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 26 $359 +$501 +140%
Türkiye vs. United States: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 26 $33 −$33 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $396 +$628 +158%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $45 −$44 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $303 −$298 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $1,322 +$524 +40%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $115 −$113 -98%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $2,523 −$2,469 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $1,575 −$1,544 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $610 +$1,317 +216%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 20 $924 −$906 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $3,851 −$3,349 -87%
Türkiye leading at halftime? Jun 20 $6,414 +$3,356 +52%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $938 −$906 -96%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $808 −$793 -98%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $97 −$95 -98%
Olympiacos B.C. vs. Fenerbahce May 22 $213 +$33 +16%
Will NK Osijek vs. NK Slaven Belupo end in a draw? May 22 $1 $0 -38%
Will NK Osijek win on 2026-05-23? May 22 $1 +$1 +57%
Cervia: Andrea Guerrieri vs Max Alcala Gurri May 22 $1 $0 +1%
Geneva Open: Casper Ruud vs Mariano Navone May 22 $1 $0 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 47¢ $2,259 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 44¢ $294 4h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 86¢ $413 4h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 46¢ $1,003 4h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 25¢ $275 22h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 41¢ $338 27h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 25¢ $55 27h
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals BUY No 68¢ $370 27h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 26¢ $1,151 27h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 26¢ $1 27h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 26¢ $13 27h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 26¢ $177 27h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 26¢ $4 27h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 26¢ $5 27h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 26¢ $1 27h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 26¢ $11 27h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 26¢ $7 27h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 26¢ $2 27h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 26¢ $4 28h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 26¢ $0 28h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 26¢ $23 28h
Norway vs. France: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 88¢ $224 28h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals BUY No 46¢ $50 31h
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 36¢ $1,425 31h
Türkiye vs. United States: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY No 77¢ $33 46h
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 41¢ $359 47h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 31¢ $45 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 38¢ $396 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 44¢ $53 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 44¢ $250 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,505.47 · official $3,505.47 (match) · 84 history records